It can go one of a few ways.
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Apart from the few subs that remain offline, it’ll basically be back to normal. Those that do remain offline indefinitely just get forcibly reopened or recreated by admins, especially huge subreddits like /r/videos. Smaller ones just get redicted to /r/topicnew or some other creative name.
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A lot of subreddits and more importantly moderators and users leave the site permanently. In order for this to happen however, there’d have to be a consensus alternative, which there isn’t ATM. Otherwise, these communities are pretty much lost forever unless the mods put a message to go to X alternative service in the “subreddit is private” banner. Tbh, I don’t think people are gonna stomach losing years of their lives in an instant so they’ll just re create subreddits unless the mods provide an alternative.
No matter what though, they’re not backing down on the effective removal of the API (still leaving the sneaky clause “you can pay us if you want but it’ll be a king’s ransom” for AI, even though they can just trawl the web manually lol). They’ll probably announce some crappy customization features to hoodwink those who don’t know what an API is and lie to them and say it’s “API v2” or whatever.
I just honestly don’t know how it’s going to shake out and I’m scared im going to lose these communities. I don’t give a single solitary fuck about Reddit the company anymore, and I never did really. I just hope all of the subreddits find a new home and don’t just shrug their shoulders and say “welp, guess that’s it guys”.
It’s going to end with a relatively small reddit exodus with most returning to reddit in a few weeks. People are lazy, and will concede to the API changes just like they all did with Twitter. Remember when Musk took over and made all those dramatic changes heavily monetizing the platform? Everyone was crying how Twitter will die and that they were all quitting. Well guess what? Almost all of them went back to Twitter anyway and now use the official app just like Musk wanted. Reddit will be no different sadly.
I think that those who are most passionate about this situation, and are sticking to their morals, tend to be are more active group and the power users who are actually the backbone of reddit. On reddit, I post a lot, I comment and discuss a lot, and I participate in a ton of communities. I offer a lot of expertise in the niches I am in. I am not going back without a 3rd party app compromise. I think many like me feel the same way. Those who just consume on reddit will probably return.
I’ve been off Twitter and on mastodon for a long time now so take this with a grain of salt.
November changed mastodon forever. It’s 5-10x more active with a much broader userbase. Sure it’s gotten quieter than it was in December, but it went from ‘weird nerd twitter’ to ‘small social media’.
The events of this month have brought lemmy from ‘alpha demo of activitypub groups’ to ‘weird nerd reddit’
Reddit is different from Twitter. You stay in Twitter for famous accounts, not for the communities like Reddit. If enough of people (especially mods and power users) actually move to another place, Reddit will slowly die. The community-based approach of the fediverses I think works well with immigrants Redditors
i don’t disagree with your point, but want to add that twitter did take some minor damage from their changes. notably, npr still won’t post to twitter and i’m sure there are many dead accounts like that.
i imagine the platform is damaged from stunts like this in terms of quality content and posts, but probably not enough to make much of a difference for most users. and honestly, media has never been able to help themselves with twitter - i can’t imagine news media will ever stop with the low effort “let’s see what idiots on twitter are saying!” obsession that gained critical mass in the 2008 election.
https://www.npr.org/2023/04/12/1169269161/npr-leaves-twitter-government-funded-media-label