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- cross-posted to:
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Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/9438700
In almost 2 years of full-scale war, Russia has spent half the money from the National Welfare Fund (NWF), the main source of resources for a rainy day. At the end of 2023, almost 4 trillion rubles were spent from the National Welfare Fund, and now only 5 trillion remains in its so-called liquid part (savings in currency and gold that are easy to spend if necessary).
As analysts explained, Russia has less money for a rainy day, since in the first half of 2023 Russian oil was trading at a discount compared to other brands, the ruble exchange rate was relatively strong, so the required volumes were not received — and currency from the National Welfare Fund was sold. However, in the summer the situation changed: prices rose, the ruble weakened — and the authorities were finally ready to replenish the money.
“However, after Prigozhin’s rebellion, the dollar exchange rate soared to 100 rubles. And additional demand for currency would have accelerated the devaluation even more, so the National Welfare Fund was not replenished,” the analysts said.
At the same time, due to the need to finance an expensive war —“the items “National Defense” and “National Security” increased by 60% compared to 2021”— budget spending exceeded the legal limit by 3 trillion rubles. In addition, the budget deficit turned out to be higher than expected.
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China be like:
"Sure, no problem. Oh, what we want in return?
Don’t worry, we’ll talk about that later."Is it even possible for Russia to run out of money? If they can’t pay for foreign goods, they can still print rubles for the local economy to use, can’t they? They’d have to become self-sufficient. Is that something they can do?
They’d have to become self-sufficient. Is that something they can do?
For most things, but not for others. The one that come to mind are electronics, that need a large international supply chain.
Second, lack of comparative advantage is a bitch. It’s always better to sell things you are good at and buy things you are not than become good at everything. That’s why international trade is a huge superpower.
They can’t run out of rubles so domestic payments won’t be much of a problem.
It might cause some inflation but within limits that is more a problem for the people than the state.The bigger issue is that printing too much would tank the exchange rate. So either way, it would limit their capacity to import stuff.
And if they tried to compensate sinking exchange rates with printing even more rubles, they could get into hyperinflation territory.1920s Germany enters the Chat
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9w17Ne1S0M
Russia comes into next phase of funding the war
So what? This is great news for what?! USA debt trillion $, who cares…
USA can print $, but no one wants russian toilet paper. Therefore they need to beg for change from anyone willing to give
Or more likely, Give China access to Lake Baikal
What specifically would the draw of Lake Baikal be to China?
China has a water problem, the lake is one of the deepest lakes in the world, it is also pretty close to the border.
The Mongolian border.
I don’t think china minds
Well – it complicates things on a political level.
Then there is geography – Mongolia avarages at ~ 1500 m above sea level, Lake Baikal lays at ~450 m. The distance from Lake Baikal to the Chinese provinces in need is > 2000 km, mostly arid land.
I do not say it’s impossible to use Lake Baikal’s water for China – but I’m sure that it is technically and economically far easier to get the water by desalination from the East China Sea.
Building a pipeline from Lake Baikal to Beijing would be total in line with the “man triumphs over nature” attitude that gave birth to projects like the Three Gorges Dam, though.
