BlowMe@lemmy.world to No Stupid Questions@lemmy.world · 5 months agoIs there any real physical proof that Jesus christ ever existed?message-squaremessage-square345fedilinkarrow-up1280arrow-down129
arrow-up1251arrow-down1message-squareIs there any real physical proof that Jesus christ ever existed?BlowMe@lemmy.world to No Stupid Questions@lemmy.world · 5 months agomessage-square345fedilink
minus-squaredudinaxlinkfedilinkarrow-up1·5 months agoIf you can’t calculate the probability, then you can’t rationally reach the conclusion that the probability is very low.
minus-squarefine_sandy_bottom@discuss.tchncs.delinkfedilinkarrow-up1·5 months agoOf course you can. I’m unable to calculate the probability that the moon will fall out of the sky tonight but I know that the probability is very low.
minus-squaredudinaxlinkfedilinkarrow-up1·5 months agoYou can make the simple inductive calculation that the probability is 1 / (total number of nights moon didn’t fall out of sky). You can also look at the total energy needed to de-orbit the moon and come up with a frequencie for events at least of that magnitude. They are easy calculations and they both give infinitesimal results. If that weren’t true, there’d be no way to tell if your intuition were correct.
minus-squarefine_sandy_bottom@discuss.tchncs.delinkfedilinkarrow-up1·5 months agoIf you’re happy with this type of calculation then the probability that this tomb is that of biblical Jesus is (number of occupants) / (number of humans in that area at the time the tomb was built).
minus-squaredudinaxlinkfedilinkarrow-up1·5 months agoThat’s way too low since several of the names match.
minus-squarefine_sandy_bottom@discuss.tchncs.delinkfedilinkarrow-up1·5 months agoEnough. Feel free to continue believing that, on the balance of probabilities, this tomb is that of the really real Jesus.
If you can’t calculate the probability, then you can’t rationally reach the conclusion that the probability is very low.
Of course you can.
I’m unable to calculate the probability that the moon will fall out of the sky tonight but I know that the probability is very low.
You can make the simple inductive calculation that the probability is 1 / (total number of nights moon didn’t fall out of sky).
You can also look at the total energy needed to de-orbit the moon and come up with a frequencie for events at least of that magnitude.
They are easy calculations and they both give infinitesimal results. If that weren’t true, there’d be no way to tell if your intuition were correct.
If you’re happy with this type of calculation then the probability that this tomb is that of biblical Jesus is (number of occupants) / (number of humans in that area at the time the tomb was built).
That’s way too low since several of the names match.
Enough. Feel free to continue believing that, on the balance of probabilities, this tomb is that of the really real Jesus.