• dudinax
    1·
    6 months ago

    If you can’t calculate the probability, then you can’t rationally reach the conclusion that the probability is very low.

    • fine_sandy_bottom@discuss.tchncs.de
      1·
      6 months ago

      Of course you can.

      I’m unable to calculate the probability that the moon will fall out of the sky tonight but I know that the probability is very low.

      • dudinax
        1·
        6 months ago

        You can make the simple inductive calculation that the probability is 1 / (total number of nights moon didn’t fall out of sky).

        You can also look at the total energy needed to de-orbit the moon and come up with a frequencie for events at least of that magnitude.

        They are easy calculations and they both give infinitesimal results. If that weren’t true, there’d be no way to tell if your intuition were correct.

        • fine_sandy_bottom@discuss.tchncs.de
          1·
          6 months ago

          If you’re happy with this type of calculation then the probability that this tomb is that of biblical Jesus is (number of occupants) / (number of humans in that area at the time the tomb was built).