• EnderWiggin@lemmy.world
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    5 months ago

    at 60% to win the election

    LOL what? There is barely any polling out on Harris v. Trump, and the one’s that have circulated are a dead heat at +/-2 in either direction. I’m personally waiting on Nate Silver’s first real forecast tomorrow.

    • ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works
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      5 months ago

      His odds are about the same as Polymarket’s.

      (Sorry Nate, I know this is paywalled but winning an argument is more important than your livelihood.)

      • EnderWiggin@lemmy.world
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        4 months ago

        Hey fair enough. That’s pretty shocking. Looks like I’m throwing some money down on this one. I think these odds are insane, and I’ll gladly take them.

        Edit: So far that money is looking well spent. As expected, the odds have completely flipped.

        • ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works
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          4 months ago

          I think the original predictions were accurate given the information available at the time, but Harris has been unexpectedly successful. I am pleasant surprised.