“According to the final New York Times/Siena College poll before the election, conducted between October 20 and 23, Harris and Trump are tied on 48 percent each among 2,516 voters nationwide.”
So first, as usual, nationwide polling doesn’t mean jack. How many of those 2,516 voters polled were in states that are already going to go one way or the other?
We don’t have a national election, we have 50 State elections + Washington D.C.
We already know how states like California, Oregon, Washington are going to go. We already know how states like Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas are going to go.
We need to look at the tossup states, these are the states that will decide this. This is harder because of right wing pollsters flooding the channel recently to make Trump look stronger than he is.
AZ - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/NV - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/NM - Harris +4, 8, 9, 10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/GA - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/NC - Trump +1, 2, 3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/PA - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/MI - Harris +2, 3, 4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/WI - Toss Up
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/The polling analysis I did before this saw more states swinging to Trump, this one shows those same states moving back to toss up which indicates the momentum coming back behind Harris, which is just where she should want to be 11 days before the election.
Plotted on a map:
Advantage is with Harris.
Unlike before, PA by itself, is NOT enough to put her over the top. PA puts her at 260. PA+WI is a win, PA+AZ is a win, PA+GA is a win.
If she doesn’t get PA, she has a path with GA+WI and 1 other state, either AZ or NV.
If she doesn’t win EITHER PA or GA, she has no path to victory. WI+AZ+NV puts her at 268 to Trump’s 270.
Looking at the Trump side, same deal, PA by itself isn’t enough. PA+GA hits 270. PA+WI+NV = 270. PA+NV+AZ is 271.
Without PA, Trump has a path with GA+MI and any one other state, WI, AZ, NV.
If Trump loses PA and either GA or MI, he has to get WI+AZ. Losing either throws it to Harris.
So if you’re wondering why they’re putting so much effort into PA, that’s why. It’s the make or break state.
Idk why you got nothing but downvotes when you’re a) 100% right about national polls and b) giving a nice, detailed overview of some relevant polling data and your take on it
A lot of Harris fans don’t like to admit that Texas, Florida, North Carolina aren’t in play.
No. Sensational headlines, dumb fucking assertion.
Siena polls haven’t shown a damn thing to be correct in their own assertion since 2006.
If that’s confusing, that’s 18 YEARS AGO.
2006 … If that’s confusing, that’s 18 YEARS AGO.
Don’t do me dirty like this man
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