Oh, I mean, it would be bad, even if it “just” meant no/unsafe launches and no LEO for X months/years. I just kinda feels it pales compared to the climate related problems coming generations are likely to face.
… an ablative cascade would destroy nearly every satellite and would render ALL launches russian roulette with 5 chambers filled, and it would last for centuries.
I really have no idea where you are getting your numbers from but there’s ALREADY enough high velocity mass to make LEO a minefield for generations and we’re not stopping launching.
Pulling them out of my ass, mostly. Like, the people I know in the field don’t seem overly worried, but my own opinion mostly comes from a general awareness that stuff in LEO comes down eventually, and that for the orbit the Starlink Stuff is on, that would probably mean a few years max.
Not my field, and if I actually research it, I might find I’m wrong.
I still maintain that even a complete loss of launch and orbital capability, while of course a great and horrible disaster, wouldn’t doom us much more than our current course as a species already is.
Sure, but you seem to also present an opinion, based on sentiment from your friends. Since we both seem to lazy to actually figure it out properly, I feel we’re at an impasse.
Well I don’t see myself going to space any time soon. But I do see myself watching the nightsky a lot.
You’re right though. It’s another thing he doesn’t care about.
It’s important that we think of future generations, statistically this cascade could easily happen in our lifetimes
They are low enough that it’d probably fix itself over time. It’d be a big problem, but I feel comming generations have bigger ones.
Ok well I have aerospace engineering friends that disagree, and if those quiet mousy guys are panicking then I think they may be on to something
Oh, I mean, it would be bad, even if it “just” meant no/unsafe launches and no LEO for X months/years. I just kinda feels it pales compared to the climate related problems coming generations are likely to face.
… an ablative cascade would destroy nearly every satellite and would render ALL launches russian roulette with 5 chambers filled, and it would last for centuries.
I really have no idea where you are getting your numbers from but there’s ALREADY enough high velocity mass to make LEO a minefield for generations and we’re not stopping launching.
Pulling them out of my ass, mostly. Like, the people I know in the field don’t seem overly worried, but my own opinion mostly comes from a general awareness that stuff in LEO comes down eventually, and that for the orbit the Starlink Stuff is on, that would probably mean a few years max.
Not my field, and if I actually research it, I might find I’m wrong.
I still maintain that even a complete loss of launch and orbital capability, while of course a great and horrible disaster, wouldn’t doom us much more than our current course as a species already is.
I’m sorry but physics calculations have no room for opinion
Sure, but you seem to also present an opinion, based on sentiment from your friends. Since we both seem to lazy to actually figure it out properly, I feel we’re at an impasse.