The thing with rusky economy is that like any huge system it has inertia. And since we don’t have the best access to their economic it has been probably slowing down for some time.
So it’s a question if they can even stop the decline in time on their own. On the other hand there’s unfortunately always a possibility that TACO will try another of his rug-pulls on Ukraine or China will step up their support before the economy collapses.
Nothing huge yet. Stagnation is not declining. So they can keep at the current pace until the situation starts worsening. And even worsening doesn’t mean stopping the war. It just means that Russian soldiers will be fewer and worse equipped.
But that’s the start. Of the end.
Something to keep in mind is these are the public numbers. The actual numbers may be significantly worse.
Also the fact that a large portion of the economy is dedicated to building things and then blowing those things up.
Even if the overall economy is staying the same size, the military part of the economy has been crowding out the part that actually puts food on people’s tables, roofs over their heads, water and electricity, school for their kids, doctors for when they get sick, etc.
Not to mention that Ukraine is moving away from traditional USSR military theory and Russia is not.
Russia pushes lines with body bags by making sure soldiers face gunfire from either direction. If you don’t push the line, the squadron behind you will kill you instead. This becomes especially demoralizing, since the supply lines are also constantly attacked, leading to food & ammo shortages. Add to the fact that the Ukrainians are used to the brutality factor at this point and all of Russia’s military tactics & strategies become ineffective - even the bombing of civilian infrastructure to spread terror is something Ukrainians have gotten used to - while Russiana complain about gas prices and Russian soldiers are literally starving.
Ukraine used to hold the lines with soldiers, told not to retreat, etc - but they don’t have the luxury of utilizing gulags, prisoners, etc to foster the same meat grinder tactic - nor do they want to. So they changed their defense minister and set a goal of producing more drones than Russia can resupply the lines. Ukrainian soldiers therefore spend more time piloting ground drones than actually manning dugouts. The more ground drones there are than Russian soldiers, the more Russian lines are pushed back, the more rubles are being burned, the faster Russia’s coffers are depleted.
This means that if the change in military tactics will increase the cranking of the meat grinder that Russians will eventually be pushed back. Not only that, but soldiers who have served and who usually return to the Russian labour force will not be returning, as there will at some point be two ground drones for every Russian soldier - and as Russia is speedrunning the path to an majority of seniors as their population, the economic outcome post-war will become even worse.
So we might be looking at one of the greatest economic collapses in modern history if all goes according to Ukrainian plans.
I hope you are right.
They are certainly worse. Its a ladder to the top where every single step makes the numbers look better so they wont upset their superiors.
Corruption + fear of punishment = lying like a motherhecker
Who would’ve thought it would benefit the economy to NOT invade a peaceful neighbor
The smart move here would then be to keep the pressure on and ideally increase it.
