The first important stage race of the year (and its random weather conditions) shall start on Sunday the 8th in France, one day before Tirreno-Adriatico.
This year, the course completely avoids the Massif Central, but pays a brief visit into Morvan.
Despite the avoidance of the Massif Central, looking at profiles, there seems to be only 1 stage guaranteed for pure sprinters (the 2nd). The first one may smile upon sprinters-punchers, but even the stage going down the Rhône valley ends with climbs for punchers or punchers-climbers.
We may keep an eye on (among others):
- Vingegaard🇩🇰 from Visma, for his first race since his withdrawal from the European Championship last year;
Almeida🇵🇹 from UAE, a little bit sluggish so far;- Ayuso🇪🇸
& Skjelmose🇩🇰from Lidl-Trek; - Onley🇬🇧 & Vauquelin🇫🇷 from Ineos;
- Gaudu🇫🇷 & Costiou🇫🇷 from FDJ, if you are French and masochist, or if they raise the level they showed lately;
- L. Martinez🇫🇷 from Barhein.
Stages profiles
stage 1 (Sunday the 8th): 
stage 2: 
stage 3 (Team Time Trial): 
stage 4: 
stage 5: 
stage 6: 
stage 7: 
stage 8 (Sunday the 15th): 
The big question here is if Vingegaard can win it, and I personally think he can. I’ve heard other people say it’s not hard enough, though. But I think we’re underestimating his punchyness, the only rider consistently more punchy on hard stages is Pog.
Yeah. I don’t see any particularly frightening competitor for him, if he is in shape.
Pure punchers are generally not consistent (as you highlighted) over a week. Several may win stages, but for GC that should be more difficult for them.
We’ve seen Ayuso🇪🇸 and Almeida🇵🇹 on the Tour of Algarve, and they struggled to make differences with Seixas🇫🇷, Onley🇬🇧 and Riccitello🇺🇸, so this bunch of riders seem pretty much the same, there isn’t one who stands out and appears dominant.
For the TTT, he will have Affini🇮🇹 and Armirail🇫🇷 with him (both won mixed TTT at EC or WC in recent years), so even there his team will probably be favourite, and that would give him a small safety mattress as soon as stage #3.