11/17/2023 Estimated DRS count: 76,070,216 ((using today’s DRSbot total + fix inadvertent DRSbot offline or resets) x 4.175)
The 4.175 multiplier comes from 8/31/2023 Form 10-Q divided by DRSbot 8/31/2023 total: 75,400,000 / 18,059,540 = 4.175
Bloomberg data (to 9/11/2023), DRS estimated counts, and other:
| Holding | Number of shares | As of |
|---|---|---|
| ETFs | 29,138,064 | 9/8/2023 |
| MFs, Index Funds, Pension Funds, etc | 33,999,059 | 9/8/2023 |
| Other Institutional Ownership | 32,373,815 | 9/8/2023 |
| Insiders Stagnant | 14,339,510 | 9/8/2023 |
| Insiders | 38,540,578 | 9/11/2023 |
| DRS’d - 200k Computershare accounts | 76,070,216 | 11/17/2023 |
| Non-DRS - 200k acct 25% stuck in IRA | 19,017,554 | 11/17/2023 |
| Other | 61,762,498 | 11/17/2023 |
- Total Outstanding on 8/31/2023 and 10/12/2023: 305,241,294
- Thank you to lawsondt for the Bloomberg data to 9/8/2023.
- “Non-DRS - 200k acct 25% stuck in IRA” is a conservative percentage. The Google share count surveys have suggested the 200k Computershare accounts have 30-40% additional shares stuck in IRAs.
- “Fix inadvertent DRSbot offline or resets” is primarily whale #1’s 1,388,490 DRS shares. Long story of switching subs and losing their DRS share count. So added the “fix inadvertent” column to capture their DRS shares.
Discussion points:
- It seems “odd” on some of the DRS count fluctuations since the beginning.
- It seems “odd” on recent DRS count stagnating (excluding the Mainstar rugpull of 1.27 million shares). From a very simplistic view assuming 200,000 Computershare accounts:
| Buy X number of shares a month | Multiply by 3 months per quarter | Total DRS per quarter if 100,000 active accounts | Total DRS per quarter if 200,000 active accounts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 300,000 | 600,000 |
| 2 | 6 | 600,000 | 1,200,000 |
| 3 | 9 | 900,000 | 1,800,000 |
| 4 | 12 | 1,200,000 | 2,400,000 |
| 5 | 15 | 1,500,000 | 3,000,000 |
- The April 2023 List of stockholders DRS numbers seem correct and line up with SEC filings.
- Possible some investors have had to un-DRS.
- Possible economic slowdown has reduced investor purchasing power.
- Whale investors who helped inflate DRS numbers alot, have dramatically slowed down their purchasing.
- Tinfoil - possible there have been forces inflating and draining their DRS shares, spread across say 3,000 accounts to make it seem like normal activity.
- Tinfoil - possible something funny with SEC filing reported number.
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