The Oregon Supreme Court on Friday declined to hear a bid to remove former President Donald Trump from the 2024 ballot based on the 14th Amendment’s “insurrectionist ban,” saying it’s waiting for the US Supreme Court to rule on the issue.
The ruling comes after Colorado and Maine kicked Trump off the ballot, after judges and officials determined that his role in the January 6 insurrection renders him ineligible for office. However, those decisions have been paused to allow for appeals.
Trump has prevailed in other states, where courts dismissed lawsuits on procedural grounds and never grappled with the questions about January 6. He has beaten back challenges in Minnesota, Michigan, and Arizona – and California’s top election official recently decided to keep him on the ballot there as well.
The Oregon court did not rule on the merits of the challenge, specifically citing the ongoing litigation at the US Supreme Court, which will hear oral arguments in the Colorado case on February 8.
Even if he’s only removed from the ballots in blue states, it’ll have an effect on an downballot elections in those states. The base of the Republican party is still very deep into trumpism; and they’re more likely to vote at all if their guy is on the ballot. If he’s not, they may refuse to participate at all, which could potentially swing local races or otherwise make them competitive rather than safe positions.
On the national scale, if a congressional district is already competitive and those otherwise reliable Republican voters don’t show up, it could give the democratic nominees for those districts an edge- assuming “keep Trump from getting back into the White House” isn’t the only motivation energizing the Democratic party’s base.
The Republican party’s majority was already thin after the midterms, and the gap has been narrowing due to party infighting; on top of that, they barely won back the house during a midterm election without securing the Senate during the election cycle that is most advantageous to the minority party (since a ton of voters only vote during presidential elections).
The more states that ban Trump from the ballot, the more likely it is that the discouragement felt by the Republican party’s base- particularly the Trumpist faction- leads to a number of them no longer feeling energized to vote, which may lead to progressive and centrist Democratic wins in competitive districts up and down the ballots, which may affect local or state politics enough to affect policy in a way that less more toward the progressive side of things- again, provided that the Democratic party doesn’t rely too heavily on “we’re not Trumpists” and find themselves going against Haley instead of Trump without a cohesive plan.
Tl;dr: Trump missing from the ballot in only blue states could still significantly affect downballot elections and initiatives, and give the Democratic party an edge in their efforts to take back the house and solidify their hold on the Senate- provided the Dems work on their messaging, energize their base, and win over independents.