Akio Toyoda, Toyota Motor’s chairman, has never been a huge fan of battery electric vehicles. Last October, as global sales of EVs started to slow down amid macroeconomic uncertainty, Toyoda crowed that people are “finally seeing reality” on EVs. Now, the auto executive is doubling down on his bearish forecast, boldly predicting that just three in 10 cars on the road will be powered by a battery.
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“The enemy is CO2,” Toyoda said, proposing a “multi-pathway approach” that doesn’t rely on any one type of vehicle. “Customers, not regulations or politics” should make the decision on what path to rely on, he said.
The auto executive estimated that around a billion people still live in areas without electricity, which limits the appeal of a battery electric vehicle. Toyoda estimated that fully electric cars will only capture 30% of the market, with the remainder taken up by hybrids or vehicles that use hydrogen technology.
It’s not even that, for me. The lithium would still last a while. It’s that it currently takes an 1,100 pound battery that costs over $10,000 or even $20,000 to replace, that won’t last over 20 years before its shot and is crazy expensive to work on if anything happens to it sooner. EV batteries need to be lighter and have batteries that will last longer, or be cheaper to replace.
Most cars on average are scrapped by the 10-15yr mark. Much of the lithium can be recycled, and there are already videos of people diy replacing battery packs for 1/3rd the price you’re talking about.
Inverters are solid state and reliable, motors have about 6-22 components in their assembly… EVs will last far far longer than any ice car.
My non EV is at 250k miles at 16 years old on original Trans and Engine and has no mechanical issues whatsoever. Yes, this is not “common” for 15+ year old cars to survive and still do well, but go hop on marketplace and look at cars under $5000. All the undamaged still running vehicles are over 15 years old, and there are literally thousands for sale at any given time. If we were in a completely/mostly EV country there would be no cars that still ran or were worth buying that are over 15 years old.
Also, the battery fixing videos for 1/3 the cost isn’t really “fixing”. It’s just replacing the completely ruined cells while all the rest are on their last leg.
My 40yr old motorcycle is still running at 30k miles, mainly because southern California is very dry and non-corrosive. If I were to move back to NYC, the salty roads would probably destroy my machine in short order.
Regardless, the point is that in an EV, the energy storage part can be replaced while the rest of the system remains functional, without emitting CO2 directly into the atmosphere.
Packs can be recycled, individual damaged cells replaced if you really want to save money, though I don’t recommend it. By nature of system complexity, the dino cars simply cannot run as well as an EV for the same amount of time. Average 6cyl has about 350 individual components within the engine block which must be within very tight tolerances (the crux of the problem), whereas an equivalent power electric motor has maybe 8 parts if air cooled.
If you trust the engineers in large industrial operations where uptime is key, you’ll notice none of the pumps are driven by anything but beefy electric motors, running for years whether interrupted or continuously before going down for preventative maintenance.
Some Teslas have over 700 cells. Dropping an 1100 pound battery pack down after raising the car up and locating and replacing several cells in an old battery when all the other cells are also nearing the end of their lifespan is a very expensive and timely endeavor for a small amount of extra time before having to do it again, because replacing bad cells doesn’t magically make all the other cells new again. Without a complete battery pack replacement in a 10+ year old battery pack, it’s just spending a lot of money for a band aid.
… Yes, that’s why I said I don’t recommend it.
If time is cheap for you (e.g. you’re broke) then spend it until you are able to recycle the pack outright.
If you’re broke you aren’t going to have the equipment or the safeguards to remove and repair a 1,000+ pound battery yourself, and you won’t find a shop to do it for less than a couple grand. You’re “just do that” is completely unrealistic. Not to mention that a 1.5 to 2% capacity loss every year means your 15 year old car that started off being able to go 250 miles can now only go around 150 miles on a fall charge, and closer to 100 miles in very cold temps.
People make do, luckily at least some of us are creative 🙄
Average commute in the US is about 30 miles each way.
I don’t know how else to spell this out, you just never seem to get this: when the battery wears out, you replace it, not for free, but you get an effectively new drivetrain on your car. Your door dents and scratches will still be there, brakes still squeal and maybe you need to replace the shocks. But you can again accelerate hard, go long distances, all quietly and far more reliably than an ice car can. You can do this probably a few times before the body and subframe is worn/corroded too much to be worth it.
Get it?
When a powertrain wears out, a replacement ice will cost a person $2000 for an engine and $1600 labor. That 300 lb engine could sit on a shelf in a warehouse for 5 years or 30 years and still be an engine that works well. You want to spend a few grand more and you can make that old engine that’s in working condition, essentially brand new.
You leave a 1000 lb battery pack stored for 5 years and left alone it’s ruined. 30 years it’s ruined no matter what. Can’t just be pulled from a junkyard and taken home. It’s too large and heavy. Cost an arm and a leg to get delivered to an independent shop. Not to mention the equipment needed to manipulate around 1000 lb battery packs, so no one can self replace these things. The packs can’t be made new. They degrade with age, used or not. They cost more and they lose more value and only people with a house and garage can conveniently charge them.
And the swap didn’t work in the end…So it mattered very little if it was “easy” to do if it still doesn’t work in the end.
As an engineer, iteration is a core part of the process.
Laws need to be changed to ensure the process can be done by local mechanics without a 3x markup by the manufactures. “Free market competition” and all that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jyZKoifTRo
Here’s a kit for $10000-ish that increases range by about 40% of a Nissan leaf: https://qccharge.com/products/battery-high-voltage-traction-new-for-nissan-leaf?variant=44417197047967
And even they STILL have issues after installing a new battery. There were 2 issues that they “hope” will just magically go away because they aren’t sure where the issues stem from. And making such a swap is still costing more than the car is worth. Much like the EV market in general, they need to be priced so more than just the upper middle class and wealthy can afford to own one if they want.
Despite my somewhat negative tone, I do believe EVs can be be very viable for those that can afford them. It’s just that most simply can’t afford them and repairing them is far too costly even with aftermarket battery swaps. I was really interested in the Chevy Bolt when it was available. And I doubt Tesla ever offers anything in that price range. And until there are more entry level priced EVs available, they will never gain enough general market traction to garner a real amount of market share.
I even think this idea is superior to a Tesla semi - []https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=an6e2Lh9u58 (Just remember this is a prototype and is currently being developed for very heavy duty usage). And these people are actual truck drivers and loggers. They know far better than Tesla engineers what is required for their needs. They also have since expanded to offering a conversion kit for heavy duty pickup trucks also.
My guy, iteration. We’re playing around with the internals of equipment whose manufacturers explicitly desire you throw away like a cell phone. There is no instant gratification with these kinds of things, work still needs to be done, and I’d say it’s already close enough to be viable.
Do I wish EVs were cheaper? Yep. I was also interested in the bolt. Let’s be realistic, without shooting down any attempts at progress.
As another engineer, yes I do understand iteration. But when you look at automobile manufacturers design direction, there is little to no “iteration” happening with entry level cars. GM tried, and were so close. It remains to be seen if GMs new Ultium battery will restart an entry level push from them.
But no one else, (outside of China), is taking that tack. They are shooting directly for the upper end of the market. The markup is better and less effort is needed. This will stifle the total market and overall development of EVs. EVs are playthings for the rich.
Remember Henry Ford deliberately designed the Model T so the average consumer could afford it right from the start. Ain’t nobody in the west filling that role that I see.
That doesn’t seem to be an issue of EVs per se. I’m afraid I don’t understand the crux of your argument, I’m saying the people will figure out a solution for pack rehab/replacement at affordable prices, as is customary.
The rest of the car is usually just fine, and that’s after 15-20yrs of continuous use. Even if the EV was initially for the upper class, the car is durable enough to facilitate resale at least a few times, with corresponding drop in price.
It really remains to be seen just how durable the rest of the vehicle will be in 15 or 20 years. The daily bumps and vibrations of driving down the road day after day will take a toll on the secondary electric components, the the touch screen, doors will get out of alignment and not be easy to repair. Seatbelt fabrics degrade and airbags start becoming unreliable.
There needs to be choices for the masses in the middle class that are affordable and reliable. And arguably, if greenhouse gasses reduction is the goal, then it’s more important to have more inexpensive affordable cars now than waiting another 15 or 20 years for the “trickle down” effect of overused used cars getting affordable. If those choices don’t exist, then EVs won’t be more the than a niche market for those with money. The mass numbers of people will simply continue to drive ICE vehicles because they are cheaper to buy and more available.
And it appears car manufacturers have abandoned that market segment and don’t appear to be working on them.