Cunigulus [they/them]

Why are they letting him run again? What does the inside of the White House look like that no one can convince him it’s not a good idea? Is Biden some kind of covert hard-ass who has his eunuch advisors scurrying around to avoid his wrath? Is someone else like Blinken really pulling the strings, forcing Biden to run knowing there’s no way he’d maintain his position if another Democrat had the authority to replace him? Just a clique of mid-wits who don’t like their odds should they be forced to take another spin 'round the revolving door?

Sometimes it’s less about what the right move is and more about what the move is that keeps the situation dire enough that no one has time to oust you for your incompetence.

I saw someone suggesting this was revenge for the border stuff, but that didn’t seem plausible to me. I’ve got to think there are better ways to pressure Abbot than pointing a gun at the head of the fossil fuel industry.

US hegemony is definitely collapsing. The financial stuff is fake, what matters is global industrial systems, and the US and its closest allies are not catching up. They can pull all the levers of their diplomatic-military-financial empire to try to isolate China and protect their markets, but the best it can do is force a war they can’t win. China will just build a conventional military force three times the size of the US alongside literally billions of drones and crush us in 3-4 years, with a huge risk it goes nuclear. The alternative is we just go along with a relatively gradual decline punctuated by crises, and give up the empire with a whimper. At some point in 3-10 years the decline will be undeniable and reshape domestic politics in the US profoundly.

The political angle might have been decisive in winning support for neoliberal development politics in the West, but it’s not the only factor at play here. The whole exchange-rate manipulation-financialization scheme is poison to an industrial economy. Building any kind of domestic industry is like marching against a river. The Asians just do everything cheaper, bigger, and now most of the time better. They’re doing it all in a concentrated region connected by the newest and best infrastructure in the world. The body of knowledge and experience in so many of these fields is dwindling or non-existant in the US today. We’re definitely rich enough to solve these problems of weapons production, but the MIC is mind-fuckingly corrupt and inefficient and completely insulated from military and congressional scrutiny. Any money you throw at the problem will get stolen with little to show for it. We would need a coup for the problem to get fixed and there would be a coup if anyone seriously tried.

I had to make the point to some chud on that Iran’s foreign policy would be pretty much the same if it were a “moderately-liberal democracy”. They probably never saw it because of shadow-bans.

German libs seem to be the only ones in the West truly enjoying supporting Israel’s genocide. They’re totally convinced that supporting Israeli murder of Palestinians makes them clever/moral good boys who are just better than everyone else. Everyone else is sheepish about it or just doesn’t want to talk about it, but the Germans watch their media blatantly propagandizing them to support this crime against humanity and eat it up like Uncle Sam dripped some lard over their kibble this morning. It really encapsulates everything that is sick and wrong in the German political consciousness. They’ve really got a lot going for them as a society, as loathe as many of us here are to admit it, but it makes them so damned arrogant and blind to their ideological domination.

The long rule of Chavismo has terminally weakened the power base of the right in Venezuela. Their social base was already too small to effectively maintain power, and it has only shrunk in recent years with the mass emigration of any Venezuelans with a bit of money. You’re far more likely to see the current ruling party take a more authoritarian turn while intensifying its neoliberal tendencies than you are to see the old-school reactionaries come to power.

Never played Half-Life Uplink. Pretty good bonus content.

It seems like a race against time for the Israelis. Eventually the genocide will put enough stress on their neighbors’ and allies’ political systems that their geopolitical situation will begin to deteriorate. How much genocide can they pull off in the meantime? I think they will keep going until something breaks, but once there are real geopolitical consequences the Israelis will have to attempt to deescalate. Whether that will work or not will depend on the particular breaking point. If the US gets forced out of Iraq and Syria by military attacks some kind of pause might be enough to stabilize the situation, if it’s a military coup in Egypt or Jordan de-escalation might not be an option. Israel will not stop of their own accord, and Hamas really only has the military power to delay the ethnic cleansing operation. There will be no big arrow counteroffensives or encirclements (outside of tactical ambushes), but they can make the Israelis pay for every block of Gaza City. Given all that the Israeli political leadership has on the line, there will be a greater than normal tolerance for casualties. They will lie about the numbers rather than jeopardize their ability to continue the operation. This situation is set up in such a way that the Israelis are going overplay their hand, and these kind of situations lead to horrible spirals of violence all the time in history. Even nuclear war is becoming a possibility.

They’re probably just not ready for a major confrontation. They’ve been busy supporting Assad in Syria and dealing with the domestic political situation in Lebanon. They haven’t even really responded to some pretty serious provocations from the Israelis. Maybe they’re waiting for the situation to develop further, draw more Israeli resources into the Gaza fight before acting decisively.

Hamas also won’t have the resources of NATO and a modern-ish conventional military to defend with, though I imagine they’ll be far more motivated than either side in Bakhmut. This is the second phase of their plan, they want this engagement, and I’m sure they’ve prepared themselves as best they can. Israel is marching right into their trap with a large and concentrated force. Hamas must have limited artillery and modern anti-tank weapons systems, but improvised mines and bombs will still take their toll. The real key is how long it takes the Israelis to fight through. If they stop their advance once they lose a few Merkavas and get bogged down the humanitarian situation in Gaza will have time to continue to worsen, which is what Hamas is counting on to force some kind of diplomatic or strategic shift that can help them.

So Israel will squeeze them into the southern part of the strip to starve and die of thirst while the Egyptians push them back on the other side. I don’t think that situation can last and the Israelis will expect the Egyptians to back down and let refugees across the border. It puts the Egyptians in an impossible situation.

They’re going to try to push the whole population over into Egypt, squeeze them like toothpaste. Put that extra million Palestinians into the southern half of the strip with no food or water and force the Egyptians to deal with it. I think this is why US Diplomats are scrambling to talk Egypt into helping the Israelis. Big indication to me that the plan is full cleansing. I don’t know if they actually want to keep Gaza or if they’re just planning on pushing people out so they can get rid of Hamas, maybe they haven’t even thought that far ahead. First they’ll have to defeat Hamas in the rubble, which will not be an easy task. I think this will last longer than intended, and the scale of brutality and humanitarian crisis will overwhelm any publicity boost Israel received by playing victim. The strain on the diplomatic situation in the Middle East will be intense, and the longer the crisis lasts the higher the odds of weak links breaking and the situation spiraling out of control. If things don’t break their way, a depleted IDF fighting in Gaza might have to face down multiple Arab armies. This is a huge historic gamble being made in a situation in which the resistance has taken the initiative. Does this happen if Netanyahu’s government is stable? Will his government survive thousands of dead Israeli soldiers and a worsening international climate? When you think about how this is starting to play out Hamas’s move makes more sense, even if it relies on developments outside of their own control.

Don’t worry. The F-35 has a very short range. I’m not sure it could even make it to Cuba from SC.

I got shadowbanned from /r/worldnews. It’s kind of crazy how right-wing that place is getting. I don’t think it’s the libs turning fash either. I just think anyone who isn’t a bloodthirsty imperialist has at this point said something to contradict the propaganda and has been shadowbanned.

There’s a conspiracy angle on the Malaysian Air 370 that it was the US stealing or eliminating a team of Chinese engineers involved in chip design. Flew it to Diego Garcia and then dumped the plane.

If it’s true that they’re still a bit behind the cutting edge in lithography technology, then China is going to blow past the rest of the world in advanced semiconductors in the next 2-3 years. Wringing that kind of performance out of less precise lithography techniques means their chips will be better than western chips once they achieve parity in lithography technology, which will probably happen in the next 2-3 years. Before the end of the decade China is going to be decisively more technologically advanced than the US. It’s fucking over.

A heirarchical cult of gay nerds full of social incompetents with a shit-load of money. A completely amoral and shameless man could fuck his way right to the top.