• 7 Posts
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Joined 2 年前
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Cake day: 2023年7月3日

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  • Let’s set aside specific funds for the moment, we’ll get back there, first let’s talk about diversification.

    In the most extreme portfolio you could yolo Tesla options. This takes on a lot of risk. It could make you a ton of money, or it could lose all your money. Less extreme you could buy a direct single stock, it’s less risk than options, but it could still make or lose you a lot of money if you pick the “right” or “wrong” stocks. It’s very hard to consistently pick the best stocks that have high growth while avoiding the bad stocks that crater. To do it flawlessly would require a time machine or extreme luck.

    To mitigate that risk of picking stocks poorly, many people buy baskets of stocks (like the sp500). And you can take this further: Why just the biggest companies and not the total US market? Why just the US and not international stocks? Why just stocks and not other asset classes like bonds or real estate? The short answer is that we don’t know where growth will come from nor the world event that will drive them.

    It’s also important to realize that diversification reduces the variance in outcomes, and while people concentrate on the fact that you’ll have less downside it also means less upside. The latter become obvious if you look at which stocks shot up in an index you own and compare your return on the index vs if you’d held just the few stocks that did well. This is why you’ll sometimes hear people call it ”diworsificstion”.

    So back to your questions:

    • Why VTI vs QQQ: they have vastly different diversification profiles (3,500 stocks vs 100), so generally you’d expect QQQ to have more risk, which means more upside and downside potential
    • Why BND vs SCHD: bonds are a different asset class vs stock, and despite some functional similarities with dividends, they don’t behave the same in all market circumstances, so again you’re looking at a diversification call

    None of this is trying to tell you what to do, but I think the framing on your approach is wrong, you’re comparing a diversified portfolio with the return on a less diversified portfolio. Ideally you start with assessing your risk tolerance and then choose allocations from there.




  • Boring reply incoming.

    Focusing on dividends usually leads to suboptimal portfolios where you have insufficient diversification and trail the market on longer time horizons. There’s nothing magical about dividends specifically, and generally you’re better off focusing on total return and getting over the mental hurdle of selling investments during the withdrawal phase.

    Three fund portfolios aren’t sexy but they are recommended because they offer excellent diversification, are simple to reason about, and require little to no maintenance.

    Only you can choose what’s right for you but my advice is to keep a majority of your investments boring and if you’ve got the itch to chase return allocate a small percentage for “fun” investments where failing won’t break your retirement.




  • While vitamin D supplements did not affect overall prevalence of cardiovascular disease, strokes, or cancer, there was a 17% reduction in deaths from cancer in the group that took vitamin D. When Manson focused solely on individuals who had been taking vitamin D for two years or more, there was a statistically significant 25% reduction in cancer deaths, and a 17% reduction in advanced metastatic cancer.

    The Vital trial has also shown that vitamin D supplements significantly reduce the rate of autoimmune diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis and psoriasis.

    Manson’s physician’s health study II, which began over 20 years ago, found that the risk of being diagnosed with cancer was 8% lower in people who took a daily multivitamin for 11 years. The greatest benefit was in older participants who were above the age of 70, who had an 18% reduction in cancer with the multivitamin assignment compared to the placebo group.

    It is possible that adults aged 60 or older may benefit from taking a daily multivitamin tablet to decrease their risk of cancer and slow their rate of cognitive decline, although the jury is still out on this.

    The tl;dr is if you’re not getting enough of specific vitamins and minerals for whatever reason (dietary, medical, lifestyle), a supplement seems to improve some health outcomes. Those deficits tend to get worse with age so older people seem to benefit most.


  • I really like having a quick and tactile way to get the camera up and taking pictures. I had android phones back in the day that did this with a combination of the power button double tap to launch and volume buttons to snap pictures, the latter I know iOS does as well.

    I do find the swipe and soft touch features of the camera control to be unintuitive. It took me a while to even realize I could change the swipe gesture to control zoom instead of the default color/tone setting which I almost never want to change. Seriously don’t understand why zoom wasn’t the default.