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Cake day: March 3rd, 2024

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  • Yes, but no. The optimistic version would be that they try something and the missiles just don’t do anything. However failure can be far more than just a non-event, it could happen as it launches, midway, almost to target, even not heading towards the target but elsewhere, etc. A badly maintained Russian arsenal doesn’t mean it couldn’t ruin a lot of people’s day.

    That being said, I think Putin is a lot of hot air. The issue now is which kind of cornered animal will he act like when called out? Let’s hope it’s just crying and fetal position and not one that tries to take everyone with them.















  • That’s still the lowest end of RCP8.5. Many are projecting that we could be on RCP4.5 once we reach where the pathways would diverge (2050), the problem with that is it assumes some large scale CCS and a flatlining of emissions (net zero). If those happen, then 3 degrees might be a top end and we’ll only have a small amount of catastrophe(?!).

    My disbelief is a number of things - human nature to change is a big one, I can’t see us changing much without a huge motivational reason (read major disasters and/or population decrease from impacts). Another is the physics of CCS, the scale needed for any large effect is just beyond anything we can do, and I think it might be far more than just the energy requirements, so say a fusion breakthrough may not improve the abilities. Lastly, the feedbacks that will be set off as we go into 2 degrees will take over the path the Earth’s environment changes towards, and we can’t stop them.

    We need to continue to talk about heavy reductions in emissions, which also means lessening consumption and growth of everything. Not only to reduce the future results, but to prepare for living in a harsher world where that kind of society can’t exist. We’re in an extinction event, and we better pre-adapt before it’s necessary otherwise we’ll be one of the species. That may already be a foregone conclusion, but it will be a certainty if we continue how we’ve been going.



  • I haven’t seen the show yet, but the hard stop at technology does make sense. It’s one part of Paul’s vision, to break out of the stagnation that humanity has put themselves in. I can’t say if the timing of that makes sense with canon sources, but from my understanding things were already slowed in progress and set in stone by the time of the Butlerian Jihad. Spice was a thing, it just wasn’t centered for space travel until the loss of AI.

    I think the loss of human progress is a very common theme in these long range scifi stories. Star Wars, Dune, Foundation (both before and after the fall), Warhammer, even the Bladerunner/Alien universe.


  • The scary ones always end with a hopeful “but if we can start to do something…”

    I’m actually encouraged by the negative trend of articles recently. The first step is always acknowledging the problem. The happy endings downplay the facts, so they have to stop.

    My prediction though is that we’ll set 2.0 C as a new limit. I seem to remember long ago 1.0 C was warned as a point we didn’t want to cross, but 1.5 C was the mark when it became mainstream news all the time. Turns out 1.0 C was always the real limit…