zephyreks [none/use name]

Interesting article by Hong Kong’s first post-transfer Director of Public Prosecutions, Grenville Cross, on the Jimmy Lai trial and National Security Law.

The US’ technological lead has been eroded piece by piece, sector by sector. Even Apple’s lead in China is showing cracks. Fucking Apple. Probably the most valuable brand in the world.

It’s interesting, because China will now run into the exact same issues if complacency and infighting that the US is encountering. Xi Jinping will bring China to be an indisputable economic superpower, but the next leader will be responsible for making sure that China doesn’t fall into the same trappings that other superpowers have. How the leader after Xi Jinping handles that will define the next century.

Semiconductor sector is seeing a slowdown because all of the traditional growth vectors (gaming, personal computing, data centers) have basically collapsed in favour of AI AI AI AI AI.

There is infinite demand for Nvidia right now, and that’s not because of AGI: it’s because LLMs themselves introduce productivity advantages that are unmatched (mostly because most jobs are useless).

In theory, this demand should grow outside of Nvidia, but Nvidia is the only company that doesn’t really have to deal with the externalities of their other business groups contracting, so in effect Nvidia is a more representative sample of how AI is growing.

Intel, AMD, MU, TI, TSMC, these are all heavily diversified. Nvidia has never been so. Their initial business was entirely centered around gaming, and their new business has just switched that over towards GPGPU for AI. They’re the single most exposed company, which means they see both the highs and the lows.

They’re just demanding Chinese ships don’t get hit or there’ll be hell to pay. Nothing has changed.

It’s industry consolidation because Huawei is absurd. The talent they have is unmatched.

Fun news from China’s AI chip industry: smaller players look to be dropping like flies. Competition from Huawei seems to be hitting hard and Huawei’s software stack is probably multiples better.

https://www.digitimes.com.tw/tech/dt/n/shwnws.asp?CnlID=1&Cat=40&id=0000684062_N0U1HFGE5HKN3P3727NXO

So a CSG contains 1 carrier, 2 cruisers, 3 destroyers, and 1 submarine

1 destroyer just got dunked on by Yemen. You’re telling me that the collective defensive capability of 2 more destroyers and 2 cruisers could block a targeted strike from China or Russia?

“missiles filled with water” makes less sense than “missiles filled with nothing.”

They’re clearly not checking the contents of the missiles in either case. What’s the implication? That they’re weighing the missiles on inspection? These are gigantic ICBMs.

Ukraine confirmed the shootdown then realized it was full of POWs and now they’re spreading FUD.

2.5x speed is perfectly acceptable for the glacial pace at which he talks.

Do civilians deserve to die to accelerate America’s decline?

Arresting every Republican party member wouldn’t do anything because the problem isn’t with Republicans - it’s with America.

Ok now do everyone else. Bomb the ports. Bomb the airport. Show Israel what it feels like to be cut off from the outside world.

During a routine flight, a B-2 struck a Canadian Goose and the impact left a hairline crack on a windshield.

Who would win: the pride and joy of the US Air Force, or the pride and joy of the Royal Canadian Air Force?

Is it just me who misses Trump-era foreign policy? He actually got tangible movement towards rapprochement between North and South Korea, signed the US-Taliban deal, and initiated the US-China trade war in a way that actually somewhat benefited the US.

He didn’t have an Ukraine war boondoggle, he didn’t have an Israeli genocide boondoggle, he didn’t accidentally stimulate China’s semiconductor industry, and he didn’t decimate Europe’s economy.

Ok, honestly, while the dude’s conclusion is beyond stupid, his reasoning isn’t that bad. BVR A2A missiles have a horrendous kill rate in practice, and if you’re WVR things get dicey. However, if you fail to get a missile lock before an F-16 can close the 20nm necessary to have it’s guns actually do anything… Well, either you didn’t pass flight school or your sensors got so jammed by EW it didn’t see an F-15 running full afterburners to close the gap.

The realistic scenario is that the Su-27 spots the F-15 on radar, locks on, and fires. The F-15 can burn whatever countermeasures it has, but eventually a missile will go through. Even if all missiles miss, the Su-27 turns around and separates because no reasonable doctrine will sacrifice a pilot in a shit show of a dogfight when it could just have another fully-loaded fighter in the air ready to dump missiles at the target. And, again, as established, the F-15 cannot separate because it’s a slower plane.

No, it’s just standard doctrine to dive into the water to save someone else. Might go against all standard boating doctrine, but that’s because most sailors aren’t tough American Navy Seals.

Armed forces of China and India see vigorous engagement along the border: https://twitter.com/chatterjeea330/status/1749443867420844243?t=-ls7OihBgv_Yoa0qawKgWA&s=19

So do the cope cages actually work? I don’t think we’ve seen much video of an armoured vehicle with a cope cage being drone-striked, but I’m not sure if that’s because cope cages are rare or because strikes on cope cages fail.

It’ll be some Trump minion who’ll immediately resign and give the title to Trump to avoid the two term limit.