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Bread and Circuses (@[email protected])
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Today, there are around 1.31 billion personal vehicles (cars, trucks, and SUVs) in the world. 🚙 Of those, only about 2% are hybrid or electric. The other 98% are ICE vehicles burning gasoline/petrol.
By 2050, it’s estimated we’ll have about 2.21 billion vehicles in the world. That’s a HUGE number, almost 70% greater than today.
But how many of those will be electric? Instead of only 2%, it’s expected they will increase to around 31% of the total.
That sounds great! 😃 More EVs is a good thing, right?
Well, if 31% are EVs in 2050, that means the other 69% will *still* be ICE vehicles burning gas/petrol. So the number of cars and trucks and SUVs burning fossil fuels will go UP from 1.28 billion now to about 1.52 billion by 2050.
That’s… not so good. 😠
We don’t *need* more cars, more traffic, more congestion, more pollution, more road damage, and more CO2 emissions.
What we need is:
❇️ More bicycles
❇️ More electric bikes
❇️ More pedestrians
❇️ More mass transit
❇️ More light rail
NOT MORE CARS!!
#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #CO2 #Emissions
In the USA, currently roughly 25% of light vehicles on the road are 20 years old or older [1]. The average age of light vehicles on the road is steadily increasing [2]. The current federal target is that 50% of new cars sold in 2030 will be electric [3]. I don’t know what you consider “common,” but with these data, I wouldn’t be surprised if 20% or more of cars on the road in 2050 were still ICE, and this doesn’t even take into account larger vehicles like busses and trucks, which tend to stay in operation for much longer [4].
If batteries get significantly cheaper, charging infrastructure gets significantly better, oil & gas pricing starts to include its environmental cost, and public transit becomes much easier for those that really can’t afford anything but the cheapest car, then all this might change.
One of the big problems with “ICE vehicles will become unaffordable”, is that the ICE cars themselves will get cheaper, and for people with less income, it’s the big upfront cost of electric cars that keeps them from switching. If a person cannot afford to pay for an electric car out of pocket (it tends to be difficult for poorer people to get access to loans and for loans to be available for older cars), then they will be forced to pay for gas at whatever price it costs.
[1] https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2022/02/how-old-are-cars/
[2] https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-trucks-operation-united-states
[3] https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/features/will-us-reach-50-percent-evs-by-2030
[4] https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-old-average-semi-truck-versus-average-car/
The part of ICE vehicles that will become unaffordable is the gas, not the vehicle itself. In fact, I expect the price of gas to result in even cheaper ICE vehicles because they’ll have to make up for the price of gas somehow.
Not sure it’ll keep pace with the price reductions going on in the land of EVs and batteries though. The only reason why EVs are so expensive is because of the supply/demand curve (and the fact that manufacturers seem to be focusing on cars with loads of luxury features). Sooner or later the supply will catch up and their price will plummet.
That is certainly not the only reason why EVs are still so expensive. Raw materials for batteries are a large portion of their cost. Currently, the cost of many of these raw materials does not account for a living wage for miners or the impacts mining can have on miners and the surrounding environment, and still the raw materials cost is a large portion of the cost of the batteries. Sure, there could be some magic new battery chemistry that circumvents this issue, but it’s unreasonable to expect that. The previous data showing drops in car battery prices could keep going down, sure, but it’s more complicated than simply economics of scale.