Biden is going to run. It’s July, he should have announced he wasn’t seeking a second term but he didn’t and it’s too late to swap.
Biden is going to win because Trump has gone full mask off as a fascist and the competition could be a potato.
Then we’ll be stuck with a sunsetting neoliberal and vaguely hoping he steps down at some point so his ACAB-proving VP can take over.
Then she’s going to lose 2028 because literally no one likes her and the Republic falls anyways.
Yeah like imagine if 4 years ago he pledged to be one term president, that he viewed himself as a “transition president” and as a “bridge” to the next leader “not as anything else”.
Much like Bidens pier, his bridge led to lies as well.
If he’d done that he would have been lame duck on day 1. The second he says he’s not running anymore is the complete end of his ability to have any real legislative influence.
. . . He signaled he wouldn’t run for a 2nd term before day 1.
Sorry I don’t understand what you mean, are you saying he did indicate that? When? If not, I’m following your hypothetical out. If a president announces he’s leaving (or otherwise is transitioning power to another administration) they’ve basically ceded the remainder of their administrative power.
Multiple times before he was elected.
Those were direct quotes from him I used above.
Like most things Biden, the truth is complicated and not on his side. His camp made many allusions to being one term in 2020, and he made various comments suggesting that news reports of one term had veracity. Now in the same fashion the establishment says he won the primary as the choice of the people (while they blocked supporting anyone else, look up the results where uncommitted aka not Biden ranked higher than his “opponents”), his defenders say he never explicitly said it as a definite so it can’t be criticized, and the myriad of News Articles saying one term from 2020 shouldn’t have been trusted.
I think you’re conflating two different things. Yes, Biden did say those things: https://www.axios.com/2024/07/03/biden-campaign-democrats-pledge-one-term, but he also never said (in the specific way it would have mattered here) that he meant to serve a single term.
It’s not too late until the convention is over. That’s literally what it’s for. Biden can direct his pledged delegates to vote for his chosen successor, whoever that might be.
It’s too late. Dropping out now practically guarantees Trump wins in November.
According to his polling, so does staying in
You say that but that’s just your opinion. The fact is Biden is already behind trump and has lost any momentum he might have had. I’m voting for whoever is on the Democrat ticket but we need the never Trumper and the ones that hate both to break our way. It isn’t enough for them to stay home.
I don’t know that he’s actually significantly worse off than he was before, but he may be heading to the point where, regardless of his health, he has lost the confidence of the electorate in his health.
This debate, and all of his post-debate has hurt him, surely. But its detached from reality to suggest that Biden wasn’t “severely injured” going into this debate. The difference was that we saw an energized, verbal, focused, able to maintain eye contact and remember the first half of his sentence Joe Biden during the SOTU back in March. Bidens debate was a geriatric who is clearly “sunsetting”. Bidens post debate interviews re-enforced that.
Biden needs to be leading by 5 (50-55%) in the polls nationally to demonstrate that he had the “confidence” of the electorate. He was leading by 5 in 2020 and barely managed a victory in the EC by 40k net votes. If Biden is at 45% in the polls, he’s not winning the election. Biden is at 35% and dropping.
Biden hasn’t had the confidence of the electorate, basically ever, in this election cycle. At no point has he been “winning” or even really viable in this campaign. This is just purely what the data show us. Its what Nate Silvers been saying for over a year, its what Ezra Klein has been saying for a long time. The apologists around Biden protected him from any kind of real primary, or significant criticism in what has been the most critical period for evaluating his sufficiency around him as candidate. We were prevented from doing the kind of due diligence required.
Main points, Biden wasn’t winning this when it wasn’t about his health. Layer in the appallingly clear indications around his health and extrapolate. Biden was doing way better in terms of demonstrating his ability to “be the president” with the SOTU back in March. Draw a line from then to now, and then see where that line puts you 3 months from now. If you’ve ever had an elderly family member “sunset” on you, it is like, shocking how fast it happens.
If actors want to have an opinion that’s fine. But commenting like they have any clout or authority to ask something like this? Screw that. I’m tired of the entertainment crowd messing around in politics.
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I don’t find the degree to be any sort of credential. The degree could be in theater arts, which has no bearing on politics.
I’d like to see your statistic of “most people”, and what sort of degrees they might have that are relevant to asking a candidate to drop out of a race.
All that said, the real point is that someone who is an entertainer is using their public clout in a manner to attempt to influence a politician, or at least public opinion of said politician. As I said, I’m tired of entertainers mucking about in politics.
I thought the people saying vote blue no matter who wouldn’t care who the nominee would be.
In the booth, on election day, sure.
But that’s still months away. No reason to not spend today trying to find someone people want to vote for. Someone who’s actually likely to finish the term.Besides, you have to rememeber there’s a large segment of left(ish) voters who may not show up on election day unless there is a leadership change. Keeping Biden would almost guarantee they stay home.
I wonder if this is just like how we knew shit was getting real when Tom Hanks spoke out about catching Covid
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The narrative of “Biden too old to do the job” may have reached critical mass. Regardless of the truth of the matter, politics are in perceptions. The campaign to push the narrative has succeeded - the question is where to go from here.
In this metaphor, Joe Biden is the hole in the Democrats foot.
rich actor says something dumb, news at 11.
I’m not sure Biden dropping out is such a great idea. Biden has a lot of supporters among Democratic voters. I’m not sure there is another democrat with his same level of support. There were a lot of contenders for the nomination in 2020, Biden beat 'em all. I think there are a fair number of independents who are motivated by preventing a second Trump term, so they’d vote for anyone who isn’t Trump. Biden meets that criteria. I get why Biden makes people nervous, but who would be better? Who has the same level of support among the diverse democratic voter base?
Did you watch the debate? I was all on board with Biden until he shit the bed. We needed someone with the stamina to stand up to Trump’s gish gallop, and instead Joe finally beat Medicare.
If he is on the ballot I will vote for him, knowing that I am really voting for his advisers and staff to run the country after 8 pm. But any of the names being thrown about that have experience as Governor or in national politics will be acceptable. Harris, yes, but also Newsom, Whitmer, and any of the others. Harris would be easiest to slot in, since she is technically on the same ballot.
Do you really think any Democrat in the country would say “I liked Biden, and if they get rid of him I’m staying home?” It’s more likely the opposite, that people aren’t looking forward to voting for Bide and may end up staying home instead.
Do you really think any Democrat in the country would say “I liked Biden, and if they get rid of him I’m staying home?”
I mean, yeah, I kinda do. There are a lot of democratic voters who don’t know who Newsom or Whitmer are, but they know Uncle Joe, the guy who was Obama’s vice for eight years.
It’s more likely the opposite, that people aren’t looking forward to voting for Bide and may end up staying home instead.
Is it? I don’t know.
Like you said, if Biden’s on the ticket you’ll vote for him. I think a lot of people will do the same.
The problem with this argument is it only works for people who show up to vote, and if the Dems don’t get people, particularly young people, inspired enough to do so, then they’ll lose. Fear only works as a motivator for so long, at some point, you need to provide a carrot and not just the stick.
if Biden’s on the ticket you’ll vote for him.
I know I’d vote for a cat if it was on the ticket. Even an orange one. And I’d feel better about it than voting for Biden, since I’d know nobody was lying to me about it’s ability to do the job.
It would be more entertaining than sad anyway.
Why don’t Biden’s supporters just VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO like they tell everyone else to?
Right? All of the sudden Democrats are really concerned about who the Dem candidate is, even though I thought that didn’t matter.
I don’t think you’re taking into account the dynamics of Biden’s situation here. He no longer has the support he once had. Almost anyone would do at least as well as Biden is doing now. And it’ll only get worse for him.
The Democrats need to switch to a contested convention as fast as possible. Other hopefuls need to start talking as though Biden is already out, and make their case for the nomination.
I think it’s the exact opposite. With biden or kamala trump has the best chance. Any biden supporting group who would jump over to trump or not vote if biden pulled out, I think would be minimal. Nobody is energized for biden, everyone is worried about trump.
If he did drop out for someone else, younger and able to speak clearly, I think we’d have a wave of enthusiasm. Imagine another debate with trump and a younger well spoke replacement, trump would be trounced.
Bring in any of the potentials mentioned (except kamala, I can’t stress this enough), and I’d feel way more excited for the election. It ain’t gonna happen now, but just saying. With biden staying in people are righteously nervous.
Campaign finance laws ensure it can’t be anybody but Harris. If Harris can’t win an election against Trump, yet Biden might, we have to vote Biden for a Kamala presidency.
The problem is (for me at least) he’s recently shown he can’t campaign like he did in 2020, and he needs to surpass that effort right now.
My response to that would be that in 2020 he had the weakest campaign and still had the majority of voters rally behind him.
The person with the second most support in the party is just as old and is continuing to endorse Biden.
Anybody but Harris at the top of the ticket as a replacement means whoever gets the nomination will have a billion dollar deficit in running against Trump, meaning they have no shot at winning (seeing that they would be running against the only person in modern history who has won an election despite raising less money).
If Biden’s mind is as bad as we think it is, Kamala has been acting as president. She’s been a fairly good president, all things considered.
If Biden can’t win this, nobody in the roster can.
At this point, I think there’s an argument that Biden stepping aside as the candidate and endorsing Harris is the best play. Not because I think it’s a good idea, but because Biden is simply not performing as a winning candidate right now. Even with the onslaught of bullshit from the press, trolls, and conservatives I can’t justify his lack of urgency and getting in front of cameras. I desperately want SOTU Biden to show up at his press conference tomorrow, I just don’t have a ton of confidence he will anymore. That guy CAN win.
Anyone that genuinely likes Biden will absolutely vote “blue no matter who” (unless by some miracle it was an actual leftist maybe).
Fuck you George, I was tired.
Nobody begins to tackle the constitutionality of Biden leaving after some of the primaries have closed. Every primary that has closed will not have had the opportunity to vote for whoever replaces Biden. The right will rip us a new one for installing a candidate without voting for them and for once they’d be right. With democracy on the line we cannot forgo democracy.
A contested convention, while rare, would be legal.
I’ve never heard of this. If Biden does win the primary would this still be an option or is it dependent on him coming up short?
It’s still an option.
America doesn’t have legal constructs around political parties so whatever the fuck the democrats do won’t go against US law - its all just “tradition”.
Parties are beholden to their internal rules, candidates can sue to enforce them as needed.
That’s not what the article says. Bernie got his ass kicked. It was time to move on right years ago.
Democratic delegate voting rules require the delegates to “in good conscience” vote for who they were sent there to vote for unless they’re released by that candidate. Realistically, an open convention will only happen if Biden releases his delegates.
I disagree. A delegate could vote for someone else in good conscience due to health reasons of the nominee they represent.
Maybe? But they also might get sued and/or blacklisted from party politics. There was an interview with various delegates and even those who thought someone else should be the candidate they believed they were obligated to vote for Biden.
It’s not entirely democratic at the convention, even in a typical election cycle. Recall that 15% of the delegates are “unpledged party leaders and elected officials” (superdelegates).
That aside, I don’t think there’s a constitutional issue here with respect to replacing Biden. If Dems decided to select the candidate via musical chairs or Parcheesi, to my knowledge that’s a party matter (though voters would undoubtedly take a dim view of such antics).
They changed the superdelegate rules years ago. They don’t get to vote on the first ballot.
It depends on how things are run, but unless there’s a pre-decided consensus choice, multiple ballots would be likely.
And for this choice I’m not entirely sure it’s wrong for party leaders and elected officials to have a vote. It’s not like the Biden delegates were selected at random from the public to represent it in a momentous decision. No one thought the delegates would be anything other than a formality. They were likely selected as a reward for service to Biden or as a favor to some local official.
Same, I actually prefer a party-leadership and elected officials decide process to the primary system we have now. FiveThirtyEight did a series of podcasts about the history of the US primary system and it really brought me around to disliking the way we do it. There’s a reason that almost no other country votes on candidates for party nominations the way we do. Here’s the link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/the-primaries-project/ I recommend listening to all four episodes, but the third in particular was excellent.
2018, right? But there hasn’t been a contested convention since the rule change. Could be quite the circus, for good or ill. Multiple ballots more likely? Guess we’ll see.
There hasn’t been a brokered convention in the modern era of the primary system (post-1968). It would 100% be a circus. Good for TV, probably exciting, almost certainly bad for the party and its candidate. My guess would be that everything would be handled by the prospective nominees before the convention itself to avoid looking like a hot mess in front of the nation.
The West Wing had a brokered convention that went like seven ballots. Was a good episode IIRC.
Agreed. Also, about the West Wing episode. Used to really love that show.
There are no constitutional implications to a party’s nomination process so long as it doesn’t violate the law with regard to discrimination and the like. If Biden withdrew you get a brokered convention. If he withdrew after being nominated, the party’s rules would place his VP nominee at the top of the ticket (although ballots would likely still have his name due to state laws and logistics).
Uhh like how the people of New Hampshire had the opportunity to vote?
You’re a bit late to the party if you think there is any democracy in the DNC. Bernie showed that already.
Who tf is George Clooney?
First time in years I think it was not that bad to settle there when I had the chance
Did someone threaten to out him?
Liberal asks liberal to liberal because liberal news needs you to “look at meeeeee”
Aw shit, they’re bringing out the big guns now. Has anyone asked Noah Wylie yet? Do 8 out of 10 TV Doctors agree?
Maybe we can see what Val Kilmer thinks, also. To the Batcave!
Clooney is a non-marginal figure in politics. He’s very involved for an actor.
I know, but if it turns out that George Clooney was the tipping point, then the Democratic Party might be the caricature that the Right says it is.
Clooney, of all people, is one of the least objectionable actors to have a major voice amongst Democrats. The man is on foreign policy think tanks and is a longtime fundraiser and organizer for the Democratic Party. And in any case, this is on the heels of several members of the House and a Senator dissenting. It’s not like this is the first or the last drop of the deluge.
He’s still an actor. I rather listen to presidential historians, and political scientist. Just because he shells out money in a system that shouldn’t allow it in the first place doesn’t mean we should take serious anything he has to say
Then don’t listen to him. It is your choice.
A smarter person would listen to people who have real experience moving the political levers. Historians and “political scientists” arent those people.
You know who one of those people is? George Clooney. He has gotten democrats elected to office. He’s done the job of picking winners and losers. You are kind-of an idiot to ignore first-order people involved-in-the process people and to weight third-order armchair opinions more heavily.
Clooney will actually move people to support or not support a candidate. Physically. He will go knock on their doors and ask them to run. He’ll give them the funds they need to do so.
(If political scientists are actual fucking scientists show me how they use falsifiability for hypothesis testing and then tell me which of their hypothesis have withstood the rigor of reproducibility)
