Obviously the only poll that matters is the actual election, and that’s months away, and anything can happen, and everyone needs to do their part no matter what.

That said, I would expect Trump’s numbers to slide a bit from time to time as we get closer to the election. The closer we get to November, the more we’ll see independent and apathetic voters start to pay a little bit of attention, and there is just so much not to like with Trump. The MAGA-dominated GOP is incredibly myopic about how their views will be seen by the average American living outside the right wing echo chamber.

And as much as it would help them, I don’t think Republicans will be able to pretend to be moderate or sensible, even for the sake of the election. There is a perverse incentive to be as extreme as possible in order to gain support from other extremists and win influence on the right, but that behavior drags the party as a whole down when it is seen by anyone who isn’t already part of the base. For example, MTG gets national support and tons of media attention despite being a representative for a little rural district that no one gives a fuck about, all because she is a loud and controversial extremist. Anyone who moderates their tone or stops themselves from saying the quiet part out loud will lose influence to those who proudly proclaim their awfulness.

None of this is to say that victory is assured. Hell, I’m not even saying it’s likely (nor am I saying that it’s unlikely). I’m just saying that I think that there’s good reason to expect Trump’s poll numbers to dip from time to time.