Polls are crap
It’s a little bit notable how they change over time, but mostly it is just a bunch of poor methodology noise
But, I do feel it’s relevant to point out that even in polling land Biden has been gaining for the last few weeks and it’s notable which media outlets are pretending it is the opposite of that (like severely the opposite) and to wonder why that is
Remind me what 538 was predicting the last time Trump won
Thanks for link! I’ll save others a click:
Site’s still up
Trump had a near 30% chance per their analysis, which is pretty significant
Edit: so yeah a higher chance this time wouldn’t be great