Yeah, somebody pointed out that they tracked pretty close to 538, which suprised me. Digging into it, that seems to only scale to “big” questions, and even then is wildly wrong in the days/weeks range.

Digging further, one of the big markets got a huge chunk of money from Peter thiel (who dumps hundreds of millions into far right campaigns) and then added Nate silver to its “advisors.”

So at this point, the neutrality and quality of all of these things are suspect.