And polymarket itself is just a tool of conservative bullshitting. It’s no coincidence right wingers have been pushing it so hard. It’s a “poll” that they can skew just by writing a check! They don’t even have to bother with sketchy polls methodology.
As for polymarket, I’m not putting my money in a sketchy cryptocurrency scheme.
And it’s telling you mention polymarket. It’s run by Peter Thiel, who also sponsors Nate Silver. That’s another reason I’m extremely skeptical of Nate Silver’s projections.
Yeah, Kamala has been dropping in the polls - conservative polls and ‘centrist’ polls that continuously adjust their methodology to not be too far from the average. At this point, I have zero faith in polls, and I’m predicting a dem trifecta. Even the non-partisan polls have zero idea what the electorate is going to look like this election, which is the entire thing for polls. After the repeal of Roe, you cannot simply project the 2020 electorate to 2024, but that’s still what the polling models are doing, completely blind to the actual voter registration numbers.
I think my prediction of a dem trifecta isn’t unreasonable.
I think my prediction of a dem trifecta isn’t unreasonable.
Ok. Why? What evidence do you have for this?
[edit: I also think you need to address the fact that Kamala is also dropping in historically accurate and left leaning polls; that all of the polls are largely in agreement]
And polymarket itself is just a tool of conservative bullshitting. It’s no coincidence right wingers have been pushing it so hard. It’s a “poll” that they can skew just by writing a check! They don’t even have to bother with sketchy polls methodology.
As for polymarket, I’m not putting my money in a sketchy cryptocurrency scheme.
And it’s telling you mention polymarket. It’s run by Peter Thiel, who also sponsors Nate Silver. That’s another reason I’m extremely skeptical of Nate Silver’s projections.
Yeah, Kamala has been dropping in the polls - conservative polls and ‘centrist’ polls that continuously adjust their methodology to not be too far from the average. At this point, I have zero faith in polls, and I’m predicting a dem trifecta. Even the non-partisan polls have zero idea what the electorate is going to look like this election, which is the entire thing for polls. After the repeal of Roe, you cannot simply project the 2020 electorate to 2024, but that’s still what the polling models are doing, completely blind to the actual voter registration numbers.
I think my prediction of a dem trifecta isn’t unreasonable.
Ok. Why? What evidence do you have for this?
[edit: I also think you need to address the fact that Kamala is also dropping in historically accurate and left leaning polls; that all of the polls are largely in agreement]