Need to let loose a primal scream without collecting footnotes first? Have a sneer percolating in your system but not enough time/energy to make a whole post about it? Go forth and be mid: Welcome to the Stubsack, your first port of call for learning fresh Awful youāll near-instantly regret.
Any awful.systems sub may be subsneered in this subthread, techtakes or no.
If your sneer seems higher quality than you thought, feel free to cutānāpaste it into its own post ā thereās no quota for posting and the bar really isnāt that high.
The post Xitter web has spawned soo many āesotericā right wing freaks, but thereās no appropriate sneer-space for them. Iām talking redscare-ish, reality challenged āculture criticsā who write about everything but understand nothing. Iām talking about reply-guys who make the same 6 tweets about the same 3 subjects. Theyāre inescapable at this point, yet I donāt see them mocked (as much as they should be)
Like, there was one dude a while back who insisted that women couldnāt be surgeons because they didnāt believe in the moon or in stars? I think each and every one of these guys is uniquely fucked up and if I canāt escape them, I would love to sneer at them.
(Semi-obligatory thanks to @dgerard for starting this.)
AGI is coming, weāre already at the ādumb guy who doesnāt understand math but thinks heās smartā level
I asked ChatGPT, the modern apotheosis of unjustified self-confidence, to prove that .999ā¦ is less than 1. Its reply began āHere is a proof that .999ā¦ is less than 1.ā It then proceeded to show (using familiar arguments) that .999ā¦ is equal to 1, before majestically concluding āBut our goal was to show that .999ā¦ is less than 1. Hence the proof is complete.ā This reply, as an example of brazen mathematical non sequitur, can scarcely be improved upon.
Iāve said it before a few times: this shit is a tunguska-level event on society today
that thereās now even retroactive contamination fallout is sickening :|
tunguska incident only wiped out local squirrel population and its fallout was inert. this is more like leaded gasoline: introduced for profit, polluting for decades, makes people dumber during entire duration of it, entrenches techbros and makes them responsible for development of infrastructure going forward
Sooner or later the only remaining source of reliable digital information will be 1990s multimedia CD-ROM encyclopedias.
brb, saving copies of physics and math books before they go offline
I donāt even have an optical drive anymore jesus.
Encarta 96 btw
As a fan of physical media, I recently bought another drive as a spare, currently is IMO a good time for that. They still make really good drives in large enough quantities so theyāre cheap, but that could end any time. Once production stops, they will vanish silently. Learned that lesson back then when floppy drives were suddendly goneā¦ kinda wish I had stocked up a few new ones (for retro computing purposes) when they were still available.
Yeah production of consumer writeable CDs / DVDs / BDs has basically stopped already. The end is in sight.
Also Iām not sure how much of a problem this is for newer CD drives, but older ones tend to give out sooner or later.
My Sega Saturn*'s drive still works, but I also installed a Satiator** drive emulator in case that changes.
* My username is serious business after all
** Had to go with this option since itās the only non-destructive one
expensive archival write-once BDs
Thereās always overpriced audiophile gearā¦
Whats your fav saturn game?
Nights into Dreams. Iād have dreams about that game as a kid.
This seems like an apt point to share Maxwell Neely-Cohenās āCentury-Scale Storageā.
I knew there was a reason I couldnt part with my CD tower.
Iām the weirdo who installs blu-ray drives in all my computers. Iām also the weirdo who has multiple computers. There are currently three or four (Iāve lost count) blu-ray drives in my house.
Itās great being able to buy and own movies without dealing with the horrors of streaming. Unfortunately discs are becoming less and less popular commercially, so a lot of stuff nowadays is streaming only.
Also my car can play MP3 CDs so of course I need to be able to create those from a computer disregard the fact that my car also supports USB which I neglect since itās less retro.
My father-in-law is a hoarder of both physical and digital things. His house is filled with hard drives where he has like stored copies of every movie ever made as mp4s and then he sends the drives to us because he has no physical space for them since he has junk from like 30 years ago piling up in the living room. So now my house is filled with random ass hard drives of (definitely not pirated) movies.
Yeah, wanted to get the new seasons of Futurama on bluray as a gift, turns out that they only are on streaming. Of course.
That one hurts :(
Days since last open source issue tracker pollution by annoying nerds: zero
My investigation tracked to you [Outlier.ai] as the source of problems - where your instructional videos are tricking people into creating those issues to - apparently train your AI.
I couldnāt locate these particular instructional videos, but from what I can gather outlier.ai farms out various ātasksā to internet gig workers as part of some sort of AI training scheme.
Bonus terribleness: one of the tasks a few months back was apparently to wear a head mounted camera ādeviceā to record ones every waking moment.
this post from the guy who writes explainers about consumer financial structures hits different if you know he met and is exchanging tweets with noted race scientist Jordan Lasker (cremieux)
https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/chicago-casino-investment-offering/
maybe itās me but iām hearing ultrasonic frequencies
probably nothing, right?
Every pasty-white blogger is inching towards becoming a March violet.
Oof yeah, thatās rough. The AI generated header image isnāt helping his credibility, either. Didnāt he happily trot along to one of the rat conventions in Berkeley, and everyone was wondering why?
The Ballyās story is its own source of hilarity - not only are they scrambling to fund this Chicago thing, theyāre also making promises about a Las Vegas resort that will host the ex-Oakland Aās in what would be the smallest major league baseball stadium; with equally ??? funding gaps that their client press is all too happy to ignore.
we have this yearās greatest pride anthem already and itās only january
my habits lead to such curious discoveries:
I am extremely enamoured with how much effort was spent on the writing, ito cadence and placement. itās glorious :D
(also, I wonder if the virtual riot video is why Iāve heard that riser pattern in so much stuff lately)
deleted by creator
It took me a year of hell to hire a new teammate. But it took a few weeks to implement AI all over the company.
Employers Would Rather Hire AI Than Gen Z Graduates: Report
We have gaps of needs all over the department and a massive pool of applicants. Sorry unemployed folks.
lol thatās really cool, congrats! :D
whatās the name of the company?
did the stubsack end up in all somehow
Terminal puddin brain
deleted by creator
Maybe this is common knowledge, but I had no idea before. What an absolutely horrible decision from google to allow this. What are they thinking?? This is great for phishing and malware, but I donāt know what else. (Yeah ok, the reason has probably something to do with āline must go upā.)
I recall seeing something of this sort happening on goog for about 12~18mo - every so often a researcher post does the rounds where someone finds Yet Another way goog is fucking it up
the advertising dept has completely captured all mindshare and it is (demonstrably) the only part that goog-the-business cares about
From the āflipping through LessWrong for entertainmentā department:
What effect does LLM use have on the quality of peopleās thinking / knowledge?
- Iād expect a large positive effect from just making people more informed / enabling them to interpret things correctly / pointing out fallacies etc.
Youād think the AI safety chuds would have more reservations about using GPT, which they believe has sapience, to learn things. They have the concept of an AI being a good convincer, which, hey, idiots, how have none of you thought the great convincing has started? Also, how have none of you realised that maybe you should be a little harder to convince in general???
It is a long-established truth that itās significantly easier to con someone who thinks theyāre smarter than you. Also as I think about it a little bit there seems to be a reasonable corollary of their approach towards Bayesian thinking that you not question anything that matches your expectations, which is exactly how you get taken advantage of by the kind of grifter theyāre attached to. Like, theyāve been thinking about the singularity for long enough that the Sams (bankman-fried, Altman, etc) have a well-developed script for what they expect the first stages to look like and it is, as demonstrated, very easy to fake that.
The findings revealed a significant negative correlation between frequent AI tool usage and critical thinking abilities, mediated by increased cognitive offloading
i think it was posted somewhere in techtakes https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4698/15/1/6
yeah, I posted in previous stubsack I think
Good news, everyone: critihype is canceled until the next tweet.
Hmm, surely there is no downside to doing all of oneās marketing, both personal* and professional, through the false certainty and low signal of short-form social media. The leopard has only licked Samās face, it will never bite and begin chewing!
*You and I may find the concept of a āpersonal brandā to be horrifying, but these guys clearly want to become brands more fervently than Bruce Wayne wanted to become a bat
Hat tip to this reply showcasing a beautiful example of image gen. Very Ć©thiccal(athiccal?) technology.
Amazing how that all looks like one of those sites from the geocities era, with sparkles/stars butterflies and unicorns and dolphins all over it. All it needs now is a under construction sign.
it must be ethiccal, it has two dolphins
And a Quarian who went to business school
Imagine going on the Pilgrimage and all you bring back is an MBA and some motivational quotes, instant exile
āZeroā, so true
5ERO, even!
This is a thought Iāve been entertaining for some time, but this weekās discussion about Ars Technicaās article on Anthropic, as well as the NIH funding freeze, finally prodded me to put it out there.
A core strategic vulnerability that Musk, his hangers-on, and geek culture more broadly havenāt cottoned onto yet: Space is 20th-century propaganda. Certainly, there is still worthwhile and inspirational science to be done with space probes and landers; and the terrestrial satellite network wonāt dwindle in importance. I went to high school with a guy who went on to do his PhD and get into research through working with the first round of micro-satellites. Resources will still be committed to space. But as a core narrative of technical progress to bind a nation together? Itās gassed. The idea that āit might be ME up there one day!ā persisted through the space shuttle era, but it seems more and more remote. Going back to the moon would be a remake of an old television show, that went off the air because people ended up getting bored with it the first time. Boots on Mars (at least healthy boots with a solid chance to return home) are decades away, even if we start throwing Apollo money at it immediately. The more outlandish ideas like orbital data centers and asteroid mining donāt have the same inspirational power, because they are meant to be private enterprises operated by thoroughly unlikeable men who have shackled themselves to a broadly destructive political program.
For better or worse, biotechnology and nanotechnology are the most important technical programs of the 21st century, and by backgrounding this and allowing Trump to threaten funding, the tech oligarchs kowtowing to him right now are undermining themselves. Biotech should be obvious, although regulatory capture and the impulse for rent-seeking will continue to hold it back in the US. I expect even more money to be thrown at nanotechnology manufacturing going into the 2030s, to try to overcome the fact that semiconductor scaling is hitting a wall, although most of what Iāve seen so far is still pursuing the Drexlerian vision of MEMS emulating larger mechanical systemsā¦ which, if itās not explicitly biocompatible, is likely going down a cul-de-sac.
Everybodyās looking for a positive vision of the future to sell, to compete with and overcome the fraudulent tech-fascists who lead the industry right now. A program of accessible technology at the juncture of those two fields would not develop overnight, but could be a pathway there. Am I off base here?
This seems like yet another disconnect between however the fuck science communication has been failing the general public and myself.
Like when you say space I think, fuck yeah, space! Those crisp pictures of Pluto! Pictures of black holes! The amazing JWST data! Gravitational waves detection! Recreating the conditions of the early universe in particle accelerators to unlock the secrets of spacetime! Just most amazing geek shit that makes me as excited as I was when I was 12 looking at the night sky through my cheap-ass telescope.
Who gives a single fuck about sending people up there when we have probes and rovers, true marvels of engineering, feeding us data back here? Did you know Voyager 1, Voyager Fucking ONE, almost 50 years old probe, over 150 AU away from Earth, is STILL SENDING US DATA? We engineered the fuck of that bolt bucket so that even the people that designed it are surprised by how long it lasted. You think a human would last 50 years in the interstellar medium? I donāt fucking think so.
Weāre unlocking the secrets of the universe and confirming theories from decades ago, has there been a more exciting time to be a scientist? Wouldnāt you want to run a particle accelerator? Do science on the ISS? Be the engineer behind the next legendary probe that will benefit mankind even after youāre gone? If you canāt spin this into a narrative of technical progrees and humans being amazing then thatās a skill issue, you lack fucking whimsy.
And I donāt think thereās a person in the world less whimsical than Elon fucking Musk.
Its really about the ultimate white flight.
Agree with space travel being retro-futurist fluff. Itās very rich men badly remembering mediocre science fiction.
The US could lead the world in innovation in green technology but thatās now tainted by wokeness.
Hmm, any sort of vision for generating public support for development of a technology has to have either ideological backing or a profit incentive. I donāt say this to mean that the future must be profitable, rather, I say this to mean that you donāt get the space race if western powers arenāt afraid of communism appearing as a viable alternative to capitalism, on both ideological and commercial fronts.
Unfortunately, a vision of that kind is necessarily technofascist. Rather than look for a tech-forward vision of the future, we need deprogram ourselves and unlearn the unspoken narratives that prop up capitalism and liberal democracy as the only viable forms of society. We need to dismantle the systems and structures that require the complex political buy-in for projects that are clearly good for society at large.
Uh, I guess Iāve kind of gone completely orthogonal to your point of discussion. Iām kind of saying the collapse of the US is inevitable.
On another somewhat orthogonal point, I suspect AI has likely soured the public on any kinda tech-forward vision for the foreseeable future.
Both directly and indirectly, the AI slop-nami has caused a lot of bad shit for the general public - from plagiarism to misinformation, from shit-tier AI art to screwing human artists, the public has come to view AI as an active blight on society, and use of AI as a virtual āKick Meā sign.
I just want it all to stop.
Iāve been struggling with what the appropriate level of engagement for all the tech shit is.
I can stick to making fun of the AI crap and whatever else the tech people shit out because itās tangible for me, and I can more or less be an effective gatekeeper for my community, but the problems go beyond just a bunch of rich tech weirdos floating bad ideas, itās what theyāre trying to paper over. The fact that theyāre incompetent at it is very funny, but Iāve been laughing with gritted teeth for too long.
For the US to avoid collapse, the Democrats would have to sweep the board in multiple successive elections and be more unified and committed to deep reform than they ever have been.
I will pause for the laughter to fade.
Snark answer: for the US to avoid collapse, the democrats will have to do literally anything, so yeah collapse is inevitable.
Optimistic answer: a third, actually leftist, anti-liberal party suddenly gains popularity and power and reforms the US entirely.
Realistic answer: trump and the republicans will fully construct a fascist chokehold over the US probably by the end of this year at the earliest. Anyone who has any hope in non-violent action is deluding themselves.
A necessary precondition for the Democrats to do anything is Democrats regaining the Senate, which pretty much requires winning a Senate seat in North Carolina, where the state supreme court is taking the attitude that no Democratic win is legitimate. So, yeah: Thereās basically no institutional way for this country to come back from where it has gone.
In completely related news Iām strongly considering getting my affairs in order and moving
anywhere in the entire world besides the united statessomewhere in Europe; as itās apparently no longer safe for trans peopleor C++ developers*in the US. So if anyone has any advice (or job leads) please do share.* This is a memory safety joke
as itās apparently no longer safe for trans people or C++ developers
Sorry but Rust knowledge is now a hard requirement for visas so you better hit the book
from what Iāve been told, a digital nomad visa and EU citizenship by descent are a couple of routes worth looking into. I have frustratingly little detail on the expectations around the visa though, and citizenship by descent laws vary by country.
Estonia has an immigration thing for tech workers I believe!
might be relevant https://lemmy.world/post/21995141
what? space race was thinly disguised ICBM development program
ah, am conflating the cold war and the space race. Though, why the nations wanted to develop ICBMs is entirely relevant.
No actually, I think what you have to say is in line with my broader point. As the top source of global consumer demand, America is primarily held together by its supply chains at this point. To be crude about it, the best reasons to be an American in the 21st century are the swag and the cheap gas. When the MAGA and Fox News crowd are pointing fingers and ranting about Marxism, theyāre actively trying to obscure materialism and keep people from thinking about material conditions. Having a material program, that at least has elements that can be built from the bottom up, is at least as crucial as having an electoral program. I know the Four Thieves people got rightfully shredded here a few weeks back, and that kind of technical pushback on amateur dreams is necessary, so itās a tough needle to thread. But for instance, consider Gavin Newsomās plan to have California operate its own insulin production, within existing systems and regulations: https://calmatters.org/health/2025/01/insulin-production-gavin-newsom/ This is a Newsom policy I actually think is a fantastic idea, and a big credit to him if it happens! But itās bogged down in the production-line validation stage, because we already know how to synthesize insulin and that itās effective. And the production may not even be in California when it happens! Thereās plenty of room for improvement here.
Space and centralized, rent-seeking āAIā are not material programs that improve conditions for the broader population. The original space program was successful because a more tightly controlled media environment gave the opportunity to use it to cover for the missile development that was the enduring practical outcome. Positive consumer outcomes from all that have always felt, to me, like something that was bolted onto the history later. We wouldnāt have Tang and transistors if not for Apollo! Well, one is kind of shitty and useless, the other is so overwhelmingly advantageous that it surely would have happened anyway.
And to your last point, I somewhat sadly feel like a lot of doomer shit I was reading ~15 years ago actually prepared me to at least be unsurprised about the situation weāre in. A lot of those writers (James Howard Kunstler, John Michael Greer for instance) have either softly capitulated, or else happily slotted themselves into the middle of the red-brown alliance. I think thatās a big part of why weāre at where weāre at: a lot of people who were actually willing to consider the idea of American collapse were perfectly fine with letting it happen.
Reposting this for the new week thread since it truly is a record of how untrustworthy sammy and co are. Remember how OAI claimed that O3 had displayed superhuman levels on the mega hard Frontier Math exam written by Fields Medalist? Funny/totally not fishy story haha. Turns out OAI had exclusive access to that test for months and funded its creation and refused to let the creators of test publicly acknowledge this until after OAI did their big stupid magic trick.
From Subbarao Kambhampati via linkedIn:
"šš§ šš”š š¬šššš² šØš©šš¢šš¬ šØš āš©šššš ššš šš šØš®š° š“ššš šš šŖššššššššš š©šššššššš šŖšššššššā hashtag#SundayHarangue. One of the big reasons for the increased volume of āššš ššØš¦šØš«š«šØš°ā hype has been o3ās performance on the āfrontier mathā benchmarkāsomething that other models basically had no handle on.
We are now being told (https://lnkd.in/gUaGKuAE) that this benchmark data may have been exclusively available (https://lnkd.in/g5E3tcse) to OpenAI since before o1āand that the benchmark creators were not allowed to disclose this *until after o3 *.
That o3 does well on frontier math held-out set is impressive, no doubt, but the mental picture of āš1/š3 šššš šššš ššššš ššššššš šš šššššš šššš, ššš šššš šššššššššššš šššššššššš šš šššššššš ššššāāthat the AGI tomorrow crowd seem to haveāthat šš±š¦šÆšš šøš©šŖšš¦ šÆš°šµ š¦š¹š±ššŖš¤šŖšµššŗ š¤šš¢šŖš®šŖšÆšØ, š¤š¦š³šµš¢šŖšÆššŗ š„šŖš„šÆāšµ š„šŖš³š¦š¤šµššŗ š¤š°šÆšµš³š¢š„šŖš¤šµāis shattered by this. (I have, in fact, been grumbling to my students since o3 announcement that I donāt completely believe that OpenAI didnāt have access to the Olympiad/Frontier Math data before handā¦ )
I do think o1/o3 are impressive technical achievements (see https://lnkd.in/gvVqmTG9 )
š«šššš šššš šš šššš šššššššššš šššš ššš ššš ššššš šššššš šš šš ššššš ššššššššššāššš š ššššāš ššššš šššššš āšØš®š° š»ššššššš.ā
We all know that data contamination is an issue with LLMs and LRMs. We also know that reasoning claims need more careful vetting than āšøš¦ š„šŖš„šÆāšµ š“š¦š¦ šµš©š¢šµ š“š±š¦š¤šŖš§šŖš¤ š±š³š°š£šš¦š® šŖšÆš“šµš¢šÆš¤š¦ š„š¶š³šŖšÆšØ šµš³š¢šŖšÆšŖšÆšØā (see āIn vs. Out of Distribution analyses are not that useful for understanding LLM reasoning capabilitiesā https://lnkd.in/gZ2wBM_F ).
At the very least, this episode further argues for increased vigilance/skepticism on the part of AI research community in how they parse the benchmark claims put out commercial entities."
Big stupid snake oil strikes again.
Every time they go āthis wasnt in the dataā it turns out it was. A while back they did the same with translating rareish languages. Turns out it was trained on it. Fucked up. But also, wtf how are they expecting this to stay secret and there being no backlash? This world needs a better class of criminals.
The conspiracy theorist who lives in my brain wants to say its intentional to make us more open to blatant cheating as something thatās just a ācost of doing business.ā (I swear I saw this phrase a half dozen times in the orange site thread about this)
The earnest part of me tells me no, these guys are just clowns, but I dunno, they canāt all be this dumb right?
holy shit, thatās the excuse theyāre going for? they cheated on a benchmark so hard the results are totally meaningless, sold their most expensive new models yet on the back of that cheated benchmark, further eroded the scientific process both with their cheating and by selling those models as better for scientific researchā¦ and these weird fucks want that to be fine and normal? fuck them
they canāt even sell o3 really - in o3 high mode, needed to do this level of query, itās about $1000 per query lol
do you figure itās $1000/query because the algorithms they wrote with their insider knowledge to cheat the benchmark are very expensive to run, or is it $1000/query because theyāre grifters and all high mode does is use the model trained on frontiermath and allocate more resources to the query? and like any good grifter, theyāre targeting whales and institutional marks who are so invested that throwing away $1000 on horseshit feels like a bargain
so, for an extremely unscientific demonstration, here (warning: AWS may try hard to get you to engage with Explainer[0]) is an instance of an aws pricing estimate for big handwave āsome gpu computeā
and when I say āextremely unscientificā, I mean āI largely pulled the numbers out of my assā. even so, theyāre not entirely baseless, nor just picking absolute maxvals and laughing
parametersassumptions made:- āsomewhat beefyā gpu instances (g4dn.4xlarge, selected through the tried and tested āsquint until it looks rightā method)
- 6-day traffic pattern, excluding sunday[1]
- daily ā4h peakā total peak load profile[2]
- 50 instances mininum, 150 maximum (letās pretend weāre not openai but are instead some random fuckwit flybynight modelfuckery startup)
- us west coast
- spot instances, convertible spot reserves, 3y full prepay commit (yeah I know full vs partial is a big diff; once again, snore)
(and before we get any fucking ruleslawyering dumb motherfuckers rolling in here about accuracy or whatever: get fucked kthx. this is just a very loosely demonstrative example)
so youād have a variable buffer of 50ā¦150 instances, featuring 3.2ā¦9.6TiB of RAM for working set size, 800ā¦2400 vCPU, 50ā¦150 nvidia t4 cores, and 800ā¦2400GiB gpu vram
letās presume a perfectly spherical ops team of uniform capability[3] and imagine that we have some lovely and capable active instance prewarming and correct host caching and whatnot. yāknow, things to reduce user latency. letās pretend weāre fully dynamic[4]
so, by the numbers, then
1y times 4h daily gives us 1460h (in seconds, thatās 5256000). this extremely inaccurate full-of-presumptions number gives us āservice-capable life timeā. the times your concierge is at the desk, the times you can get pizza delivered.
x3 to get to lifetime matching our spot commit, x50ā¦x150 to get to ātotal possible instance hoursā. which is the top end of our sunshine and rainbows pretend compute budget. which, of course, we still have exactly no idea how to spend. because we donāt know the real cost of servicing a query!
but letās work backwards from some made-up shit, using numbers The Poor Public gets (vs numbers Free Microsoft Credits will imbue unto you), and see where we end up!
so that means our baseline:
- upfront cost: $4,527,400.00
- monthly: $1460.00 (x3 x12 = $52560)
- whatever the hell else is incurred (s3, bandwidth, ā¦)
=200k/yper ops/whatever person we have
3y of 4h-daily at 50 instances = 788400000 seconds. at 150 instances, 2365200000 seconds.
so we can say that, for our deeply Whiffs Ever So Slightly values, a secondās compute on the low instance-count end is $0.01722755 and $0.00574252 at the higher instance-count end! which gives us a bit of a handle!
this, of course, entirely ignores parallelism, n-instance job/load/whatever distribution, database lookups, network traffic, allllllll kinds of shit. which we canāt really have good information on without some insider infrastructure leaks anyway. if we pretend to look at the compute alone.
so what does $1000/query mean, in the sense of our very ridiculous and fantastical numbers? since the units are now The Same, we can simply divide things!
at the 50 instance mark, weād need to hypothetically spend 174139.68 instance-seconds. thatās 2.0154 days of linear compute!
at the 150 instance mark, 522419.05 instance-seconds! 6.070 days of linear compute!
so! what have we learned? well, weāve learned that we couldnāt deliver responses to prompts in Reasonable Time at these hardware presumptions! which, again, are linear presumptions. and thereās gonna be a fair chunk of parallelism and other parts involved here. but even so, turns out itād be a bit of a sizable chunk of compute allocated. to even a single prompt response.
[0] - a product/service whose very existence I find hilarious; the entire suite of aws products is designed to extract as much money from every possible function whatsoever, leading to complexity, which they then respond to byā¦ producing a chatbot to āguide usersā
[1] - yes yes I know, the world is not uniform and the fucking promptfans come from everywhere. Iām presuming amerocentric design thinking (which imo is probably not wrong)
[2] - letās pretend that the calculatorsā presumption of 4h persistent peak load and our presumption of short-duration load approaching 4h cumulative are the same
[3] - oh, who am I kidding, you know itās gonna be some dumb motherfuckers with ansible and k8s and terraform and chucklefuckery
when digging around I happened to find this thread which has some benchmarks for a diff model
itās apples to square fenceposts, of course, since one llm is not another. but it gives something to presume from. if g4dn.2xl gave them 214 tok/s, and if we make the extremely generous presumption that tok==word (which, well, no; cf.
strawberry), then any Use Deserving Of o3 (letās say 5~15k words) would mean you need a tok-rate of 1000~3000 tok/s for a āreasonableā response latency (ā5-ish secondsā)so youād need something like 5x g4dn.2xl just to shit out 5000 words with dolphin-llama3 in āquickā time. which, again, isnāt even whatever the fuck people are doing with openaiās garbage.
utter, complete, comprehensive clownery. era-redefining clownery.
but some dumb motherfucker in a bar will keep telling me itās the future. and I get to not boop 'em on the nose. le sigh.
Yeah we would like to stop lying and cheating, but the number you see.
They understand that all of the major model providers is doing it, but since the major model providers are richer than they are, they canāt possibly ask OpenAI and friends to stop, so in their heads, it is what it is and therefore must be allowed to continue.
Or at least, thatās my face value read of it, I certainly hope Iām simplifying things too much.
also they are rationalists and hence the most gullible mfs on any of this stuff
But also, wtf how are they expecting this to stay secret and there being no backlash?
No, they bet on it not mattering and theyāve been completely right thus far.
Ah right yes.
itās enough if it ends up not mattering long enough for them to cash out, then they donāt care
https://xcancel.com/kailentit/status/1881476039454699630
āWe did not have superintelligent relations with thatā¦ā
til that thereās not one millionaire with family business in south african mining in current american oligarchy, but at least two. (thielās father was an exec at mine in what is today Namibia). (they mined uranium). (it went towards RSA nuclear program). (thatās easily most ghoulish thing iāve learned today, but iām up only for 2h)
thereās probably a fair couple more. tracing anything de beers or a good couple of other industries will probably indicate a couple more
(my hypothesis is: the kinds of people that flourished under apartheid, the effect that had on local-developed industry, and then the āwider worldā of
opportunitiesprey they got to sink their teeth into after apartheid went away; doubly so because staying ZA-only is extremely limiting for ghouls of their sort - itās a fixed-size pool, and the still-standing apartheid-vintage capital controls are Limiting for the kinds of bullshit they want to pull)there are more it seems https://www.ft.com/content/cfbfa1e8-d8f8-42b9-b74c-dae6cc6185a0
that list undercounts far more than I expected it to
thereās gotta be way more, but frankly idk even where to begin to look
I hope everyone is ready for the constant overlap between politics and AI / Silicon Valley; because Iām not.
Trump Admin Accused of Using AI to Draft Executive Orders (Source Bluesky Thread).
Iām not 100% sure I buy that the EOs were written by AI rather than people who simply donāt care about or donāt know the details; but it certainly looks possible. Especially that example about the Gulf of Mexico. Either way I am heartened that this is the conclusion people jump to.
Aside: I also like how much media is starting to cite bluesky (and activitypub to a lesser extent). I assume a bunch of journalists moved off of twitter or went multi-platform.
Isnāt this one of the things that LW was spooked by? Giving the reins to an AI? Wonāt someone think of the wrongers???
yeah bsky is where journalists post now so itās where they scrape stories from
Thanks, I hate it.
Especially because Trumpās legal teams have historically been more than incompetent enough to produce this kind of work on their own.
In a way that they have been historically awful and thwarted by the courts is a thing that worries me. Iād expect that somebody the past 8 years went āthis time we will not be bogged down in thatā. But considering they went 100% in on repression from day 1 Iām slightly less worried about that.
For context, going all in on day 1 is actually bad for them, when the nazis took over The Netherlands/Belgium they methods there differed. In .nl they worked slowly and with gov already there, in .be they went full pogroms a lot faster. This meant that in .be a lot of people saw the threat sooner (WW1 and Belgium prob also didnāt help) and acted and took better care of the vulnerable. The amount of Dutch Jewish people who survived ww2 vs Belgian Jewish people is very tragic. (and a very dark part of our history which we donāt really talk about like this as mentioning that parts of your own country also are to blame for the holocaust is not a thing a lot of people want to talk about). At least I hope that stuff like going all crazy on the bishop will turn out to be big wakeup for random Americans and a strategic mistake on their part, they certainly didnāt seem to have learned from the nazis (at least not this lesson, which fits with how fascism is blind for their own mistakes).
I donāt know if this is good news for the underlying risk of how willing the nuts and bolts of society are to resist unlawful or monstrous policies. IDK, on the subject of complicity I think the fact that we eventually joined the war has caused a deep cultural amnesia about how much influence the Reich had on the states and vice versa. Charles Lindbergh, Madison Square Garden, etc. We didnāt really acknowledge how much our cultural and political structures are open to authoritarianism, much less addressing those issues.
Banner start to the next US presidency, with Wiener Von Wrong tossing a Nazi salute and the ADL papering that one over as an āawkward gestureā. 2025 is going to be great for my country.
Incidentally is āWiener Von Wrongā or āWernher Von Brownnoseā better?
Perhaps āWanker von Clownā?
Ooo, I like that.
in that spirit: Loserus Inamericus
(I donāt know if that scans, I have no latin skills and I donāt feel like breaking out information to check)
