Head of Ukraine’s national foreign intelligence service – “We have studied…the strengths and weaknesses of the enemy. We are aware of Russia’s long-term plans…at least until 2030.”
Kharkiv? That was in 2022, wasn’t it? And the incursion into the Kursk province has been a better success than expected. What had you thought it would result with? It became the most important part of the front.for Ukraine. I’d say it is a great success, but how is it a counterattack? And how does that show that something big was promised but failed? What had been promised, to your knowledge?
Russia has been slowly gaining territory back in Kursk.
In June 2024, Ukrainian forces began small-scale counterattacks in the Kharkiv region and recaptured a settlement.
How is it a surprise that the Russia has been making gains in the Kursk province? That’s been one of the three most important points in making the incursion.
Most importantly, it was needed as an insurance in case that Trump becomes president. It would have been easy for Putin to get Trump into pushing Ukraine into a “ceasefire” where the frontline would turn into a de-facto international border until the Russia is able to restart its invasion. But, if any part of the front runs inside the Russia, it becomes impossible for Putin to accept that. The Kursk incursion turned the very simple and clear-cut deal into one that is difficult to get done. Putin still needs the front to become a border, but he needs to include the exception that Ukraine will hand some of the territory to the Russia, but the Russia won’t hand anything to Ukraine. It would have been easy to get Trump to help Putin win if all the front was inside Ukraine. Now it’s not.
Then, the second most important reason: even though the Russia is advancing so slowly that the advances have no strategical significance, it is still advancing all the same. And when advancing, the Russia razes all encountered towns to rubble. All the advances the Russia has made in its Kursk province have been away from advancing in Ukraine. It has saved thousands of Ukrainians from suffering that the Russia has been razing its own villages, not Ukraine’s villages. And, we’ve observed that the Russia is much less violent regarding its own villages than with Ukrainian villages. This means, it attacks less with artillery and more with troops. And since Ukraine is primarily not trying to gain/retain land, but destroy as many Russian soldiers and destroy as much of Russia’s equipment as possible, this is a wonderful thing. Advancing in Kursk province, the Russia has suffered very much bigger losses than it would have suffered in Ukraine.
And then, the Russia has had to spread its troops more thin. Because the Russia has a bigger problem with availability of troops and equipment than Ukraine does, each extra metre of front causes more difficulty for the Russian armed forces than it causes for those of Ukraine. Even through Ukrainian army has trouble with those as well, the Russia having more problems with the same means that Ukraine gets a relative advantage from making the front longer. The incursion into Russian territory has done that.
As long as Ukraine holds any part of Russian territory anywhere, its campaign for attacking the Russia has been a huge success. Without the Kursk incursion, there would already have been a ceasefire. And that would have meant Ukraine becoming a part of the Russia, sooner or later. Now that won’t happen.
Which counter offensives?
Kharkiv and Kursk come to mind.
Kharkiv? That was in 2022, wasn’t it? And the incursion into the Kursk province has been a better success than expected. What had you thought it would result with? It became the most important part of the front.for Ukraine. I’d say it is a great success, but how is it a counterattack? And how does that show that something big was promised but failed? What had been promised, to your knowledge?
Russia has been slowly gaining territory back in Kursk. In June 2024, Ukrainian forces began small-scale counterattacks in the Kharkiv region and recaptured a settlement.
How is it a surprise that the Russia has been making gains in the Kursk province? That’s been one of the three most important points in making the incursion.
Most importantly, it was needed as an insurance in case that Trump becomes president. It would have been easy for Putin to get Trump into pushing Ukraine into a “ceasefire” where the frontline would turn into a de-facto international border until the Russia is able to restart its invasion. But, if any part of the front runs inside the Russia, it becomes impossible for Putin to accept that. The Kursk incursion turned the very simple and clear-cut deal into one that is difficult to get done. Putin still needs the front to become a border, but he needs to include the exception that Ukraine will hand some of the territory to the Russia, but the Russia won’t hand anything to Ukraine. It would have been easy to get Trump to help Putin win if all the front was inside Ukraine. Now it’s not.
Then, the second most important reason: even though the Russia is advancing so slowly that the advances have no strategical significance, it is still advancing all the same. And when advancing, the Russia razes all encountered towns to rubble. All the advances the Russia has made in its Kursk province have been away from advancing in Ukraine. It has saved thousands of Ukrainians from suffering that the Russia has been razing its own villages, not Ukraine’s villages. And, we’ve observed that the Russia is much less violent regarding its own villages than with Ukrainian villages. This means, it attacks less with artillery and more with troops. And since Ukraine is primarily not trying to gain/retain land, but destroy as many Russian soldiers and destroy as much of Russia’s equipment as possible, this is a wonderful thing. Advancing in Kursk province, the Russia has suffered very much bigger losses than it would have suffered in Ukraine.
And then, the Russia has had to spread its troops more thin. Because the Russia has a bigger problem with availability of troops and equipment than Ukraine does, each extra metre of front causes more difficulty for the Russian armed forces than it causes for those of Ukraine. Even through Ukrainian army has trouble with those as well, the Russia having more problems with the same means that Ukraine gets a relative advantage from making the front longer. The incursion into Russian territory has done that.
As long as Ukraine holds any part of Russian territory anywhere, its campaign for attacking the Russia has been a huge success. Without the Kursk incursion, there would already have been a ceasefire. And that would have meant Ukraine becoming a part of the Russia, sooner or later. Now that won’t happen.