Head of Ukraine’s national foreign intelligence service – “We have studied…the strengths and weaknesses of the enemy. We are aware of Russia’s long-term plans…at least until 2030.”
The economy, while struggling, is far from collapsing and popular support is almost a non issue. Russia is not drafting. Without a draft, most soldiers joining do so voluntarily, so there is not as much resistance. They have to pay a lot of money to make people sign up to go fight a war and the extra competition for labor (army vs factories) is increasing wages in many categories. The ones most unhappy about the situation are the oligarchs who have to pay for all of it. So unfortunately, betting on Russia somehow collapsing anytime soon is probably a loosing bet.
The more likely bottleneck for Russia is equipment and volunteers for the Army. Their Soviets stockpiles are starting to run low. And, if Russia runs out of people willing to sign up for money, they may be forced to either end the war or start drafting with all the issues that brings.
I base this mostly on Perun YT channel, that has many videos doing in depth analysis of various aspects of the war.
This is what I mean - they need money to pay for their military industry, ever-scarcer volunteers and a bunch of feel-good handouts like cheap mortgages on top of it. They’ve basically just been burning the economic furniture to make that happen (including the old Soviet stockpiles), and at some point raising the interest rate will get diminishing returns. Eventually, their spending is going to come up against what they actually physically have and lose, and then they’ll get hyperinflation.
It’s been suggested they could just muscle through that, and I can’t rule it out, but Russia is not Nazi Germany or even Venezuela. Putin’s regime has pretty much discouraged ideology of any kind in favour of cynical patronage, so once all the rubles they have to slosh around are worthless they’re kind of in uncharted territory.
The economy, while struggling, is far from collapsing and popular support is almost a non issue. Russia is not drafting. Without a draft, most soldiers joining do so voluntarily, so there is not as much resistance. They have to pay a lot of money to make people sign up to go fight a war and the extra competition for labor (army vs factories) is increasing wages in many categories. The ones most unhappy about the situation are the oligarchs who have to pay for all of it. So unfortunately, betting on Russia somehow collapsing anytime soon is probably a loosing bet.
The more likely bottleneck for Russia is equipment and volunteers for the Army. Their Soviets stockpiles are starting to run low. And, if Russia runs out of people willing to sign up for money, they may be forced to either end the war or start drafting with all the issues that brings.
I base this mostly on Perun YT channel, that has many videos doing in depth analysis of various aspects of the war.
Yeah, that’s one of my main sources too.
This is what I mean - they need money to pay for their military industry, ever-scarcer volunteers and a bunch of feel-good handouts like cheap mortgages on top of it. They’ve basically just been burning the economic furniture to make that happen (including the old Soviet stockpiles), and at some point raising the interest rate will get diminishing returns. Eventually, their spending is going to come up against what they actually physically have and lose, and then they’ll get hyperinflation.
It’s been suggested they could just muscle through that, and I can’t rule it out, but Russia is not Nazi Germany or even Venezuela. Putin’s regime has pretty much discouraged ideology of any kind in favour of cynical patronage, so once all the rubles they have to slosh around are worthless they’re kind of in uncharted territory.
I fully agree, it’s just that the operative keyword is eventually, and I don’t expect it to mean soon. Of course they can’t keep this up forever.
Once their mothballed armour runs out it seems pretty guaranteed, and there were reports of a surge in bankruptcies a bit ago.
I’d be surprised if it’s a full year. Some kind of treaty might come soon anyway, though.
Maybe the collapse is closer than we think and that’s where this sudden push to resolve the war is coming from.