The anti-Islam, euroskeptic radical Geert Wilders is projected to be the shock winner of the Dutch election.
In a dramatic result that will stun European politics, his Freedom Party (PVV) is set to win around 35 of the 150 seats in parliament — more than double the number it secured in the 2021 election, according to exit polls.
Frans Timmermans’ Labour-Green alliance is forecast to take second place, winning 25 seats — a big jump from its current 17. Dilan Yeşilgöz, outgoing premier Mark Rutte’s successor as head of the center-right VVD, suffered heavy losses and is on course to take 24 seats, 10 fewer than before, according to the updated exit poll by Ipsos for national broadcaster NOS.
A win for Wilders will put the Netherlands on track — potentially — for a dramatic shift in direction, after Rutte’s four consecutive centrist governments. The question now, though, is whether any other parties are willing to join Wilders to form a coalition. Despite emerging as the largest party, he will lack an overall majority in parliament.
They don’t need one. It would be convenient, but it’s not required
Without it, things will get quite difficult. They’d have only 30 out of the 38 needed for a majority which would be very low, particularly without obvious partners who wouldn’t rather watch Wilders fail. It’s not required to become PM sure, but he’s going to have to do something if he wants to get anything actually passed.
Does he actually want things passed though? Can’t have people change their mind on your policy if you do nothing
He’s been in the game quite long, well before the current common brand of right-wing populism. He actually has plans he wants to execute, and he’s definitely going to try and do it.