It has been said a gazillion times over the last few months, but is it getting through to those who need to hear it?
First past the post voting mathematically ensures a two party system. Voting third party is useless unless we have election reform. Vote with your mind, not your heart, and vote thinking beyond just the next 4 years.
Complete drivel. Why do liberals think repeatedly telling us the same condescending nonsense without engaging with any of our actual arguments is convincing? There isn’t a third party voter alive who hasn’t heard these arguments.
So while each individual unhappy voter wants to keep their hands clean and not vote, they would each like the other 9,999 unhappy voters to step up and swing the outcome in favor of their preferred candidate.
What third party voter is asking other people to vote for a major party? This is such a blatant strawman that I find it hard to believe that this author has ever had a single conversation with a third party voter.
I’ve had many conversations with “third party voters” here on lemmy. Haven’t found any, at all, not one, who can talk about the faults of the republicans in anything like the length and passion that they can talk about the faults of the democrats, and the national polling says that real third party voters are very rare, so a little bit of Bayes’ theorem says that the “third party voters” talking so loudly and long about why I shouldn’t vote for Harris are far, far, far more likely to be republicans pretending to be left wing or neutral, hoping desperately that they can convince enough potential democratic voters to stay home to swing the election for their favourite - stupid evil country-betraying Trump.
There’s more discourse about the Democrats because there’s less disagreement about Republicans being bad. I wrote up a post about Trump’s foreign policy doublespeak a while back where I called out anyone who might support Trump from an isolationist standpoint. It didn’t get much engagement, but that’s not my fault. Most of my comments are responding to things other people say and there are more Harris supporters than Trump supporters.
I might remind you that Lemmy was developed by communists, so an alternative explanation is that communists are more likely to both vote third party and use Lemmy.
The idea that we’re secret conservatives is so absurd that I doubt you actually believe it, and are just using the accusation as a talking point to discredit the other side. Conservatives are awful at impersonating communists, they don’t read or understand leftist theory and typically can only make it a few hours at most before breaking character and shouting slurs. You’re vastly overestimating their intelligence and creativity. To say that Bayes’ theorem supports your accusation is patently absurd.
At some point, claiming that communists are just conservatives in disguise means claiming that conservatives read more leftist political theory than liberals do. As entertaining as it may be to imagine a bunch of good ol’ boys getting together and starting a book club where they discuss, like, the finer points of Simone de Beauvoir, I think if you’re doing Bayesian analysis you should probably assign that a pretty low probability. They don’t even read their own theory, much less ours.
If anyone actually wants the option to vote for 3rd parties, then a landslide victory for Harris is the best option in this election.
The Republicans are already torn. They stand together with the MAGA insanity hoping to get enough votes by including the crazyness. If the election clearly shows that it’s a losing strategy, they will have to regroup and the GOP will be split. Then when Democrats are clearly outnumbering the opposition, it will also be more tempting for radical left wing to branch out without risking the opposition winning.
When “both sides” are then fractioned into smaller groups, it will finally be possible to get a majority to vote for getting rid of the 1st past the post problem, and make it possible for 3rd parties to get any influence.
But the first step is to make sure the Republicans lose really hard. Voting 3rd party won’t do it in this election.
So glad to see the ratios tipping toward voting! In large communities where it matters, it’s good to know that the bad actors are being downvoted into irrelevance.
Censorship is alive and well at .world, huh? I’ll leave y’all turds to your echo chamber then and block your infantile instance. GFL!
“Censorship is when people disagree with my views!”
Meanwhile, your comment is still there for everyone to read
Lmao alright
Is the person censoring you in the room with us right now?
They can’t respond, they censored themselves out of the thread. Kind of ironic iyam.
“Instead, protest voting is in fact likely to harm the democratic process, potentially leading to the election of the candidate the majority of voters overall, and protest voters specifically, most dislike.”
^ THIS!
In a Presidential election, whoever gets the most votes wins.
If “Not Trump” is split between 5 candidates, and Trump gets the most votes, he wins.
Here’s a scenario:
Trump - 40%
Harris - 35%
Kennedy - 15%
Oliver - 5%
Stein - 3%
West - 2%Trump wins. Even though 60% of the voting public don’t want him. The “Not Trump” vote failed to coalesce under one candidate enough to block him from winning.
On the other side of the Atlantic there’s usually two rounds, unless someone gets >50% of the vote in the first round.
The second round takes the top two candidates and then people choose between them.
Well I mean I don’t know of all European countries but this is fairly common afaik.
It doesn’t work that way in US Presidential elections.
Yeah. I know.
The US doesn’t have a direct presidential election. You have the electoral college, ie an indirect election.
Correct, but even state by state, if you have multiple people running and nobody hits 50%, Presidential elections are not subject to a run-off election like we saw in the Georgia Senate race.
In this scenario, why are we assuming that the 25% that are voting third party would prefer Harris over Trump?
Whether they would prefer Harris or not is irrelevant, they don’t want Trump. There is only 1 candidate who can beat the Republican candidate and it’s not an Independent/Libertarian/Green candidate.
I don’t understand your response. I asked why we are assuming these voters prefer Harris over Trump and you responded by saying that their preference for Harris is irrelevant, because they don’t want Trump.
This doesn’t make any sense.
“don’t want Trump” in this context MUST equate to a preference for Harris over Trump. And my whole question is “why are we assuming these voters hold that preference?”
I’ll try to make it simple then:
They aren’t pro-Harris, they’re anti-Trump.
Problem: “Not Trump” is not a candidate, so splitting the not Trump vote allows Trump to win.
If people really, REALLY, REALLY do not want Trump, there’s only one answer and that’s to support the Democratic candidate who happens to be Harris.
Why Harris? Because she has more support than any other “Not Trump” candidate.
I do not think this makes it simpler. It just makes the same assumption over again. That assumption being that third party voters are largely anti-Trump (or pro-Harris; take your pick, it doesn’t matter). My question remains. I’ll rephrase it:
Why are we assuming that if all third party voters were to instead vote for one of the two main candidates that Harris would take more of those votes than Trump?
Because that, in essence is what the article assumes.
Because if they were interested in voting for Trump, they’d be voting for Trump. When the choice is Trump vs. Not Trump, Not Trump wins. Even in 2016 that was true.
A poll in which “First choice is someone other than Trump” beats “Trump” would indicate that “Trump” has less than 50% of the vote. The same can be said of Harris.
A poll in which “Anybody but Trump” beats “Trump” would indicate that third party voters do indeed favor Harris over Trump.
Do we have any polling of the second type? I am not able to find any. This type of polling would be exactly what i’ve been asking for in this thread.
What the other person is saying is that you are splitting voters in three categories: pro-Trump, pro-Harris, anti-Trump. But that third group obviosuly doesn’t like either of the two main candidates, not just Trump. And if forced to vote for one of them, there’s no reason to assume all will pick Harris.
Because we’re able to discuss hypothetical things without being literal to prove a point.
That would fine, if that’s what was happening, but it’s not. The commentor that i responded to, as well as the article that we are all responding to, use this “hypothetical” situation where third party voters all prefer Harris over Trump to justify a chastisement of those third party votes. There is no basis for this assumption presented in the article or within the comments in this thread.
If you just don’t understand the concept of hypotheticals, you may be on the spectrum, fyi
Don’t use being on the spectrum as an insult. It is unbecoming.
I don’t think hypothetical means what you think it means. Either that or you are misunderstanding or misrepresenting what the article is arguing.
The article is implies that 3rd party voters are all Harris > Trump voters if it came down to a choice between the two. That is not a hypothetical, that is an unsubstantianted assumption.
It’s not an insult, I’m being serious. The hypothetical is the vote totals given in the comment you responded to. In that hypothetical scenario, voting for your perfect candidate gets your least favorite candidate elected. You seem unable to consider it as a standalone scenario that may or may not be similar to real life voter tallies. That’s a common indicator of neurodivergence.
Well, if hypothetically, I was forced to vote, and thn for only one of these 2 parties only… well, I’m not a rich white guy, I’m not racist, misogynistic, don’t believe sharpies change weather… and, I don’t want to find out just how close he would be to starting the next Nazi party. That narrows my options down a bit.
I mean… thanks for the input, but you’re just one person. I too would choose Harris over Trump if i was forced to choose between the two. But your and my personal choices to not a general consensus make. I wouldn’t argue that the majority of 3rd party voters would do likewise without some proof.
… none of this addresses that third party voters may find it more important to vote against BOTH parties than to vote against their least favorite of the two, either… but i’ve raised that point elsewhere.
This is what I keep saying. It’s like my scenario with the Class President. A Nerd and a Jock are running. 51 kids are nerds and don’t want the Jock. 49 kids are jocks and don’t want the Nerd. Pretty clear that the Nerd wins, because more people don’t want the Jock than the Nerd, right? Wrong. If the Jock can peel just THREE votes off from the nerd coalition, the Jocks win it and D&D night is cancelled.
Now re-read that and replace nerds with Liberals, jocks with Conservatives, and ‘D&D night is cancelled’ with ‘Project 2025 is shoved down our throats.’ Then…vote with your fucking head and not your fucking heart!
It’s like this, but Jocks’ votes are worth more than Nerds’.
Definitely. I tried to keep the scenario simple to make it easy to understand, but there is truth in the statement that the jocks have some fingers on the scale of Democracy. I suspect there’s more nerds than jocks. We just have to make sure they all turn out to vote because the cheerleader that is the jock’s politician is pulling out ALL the dirty tricks.
I hate all your turds who think I’ll sacrifice my moral fiber for your shit country. Provide better candidates or accept I won’t vote for them. Bitches be crying over their failure already just like natural born losers. No morals, no gumption… Sorry your nazi isn’t better than theirs. Either win or shut up, it’s called an election. We vote for who we think is best not in fear of your propaganda. But… don’t change and keep beating this dead horse!
“Your country”? Are you even American?
We’re turds because we don’t throw our votes in the garbage?
If you don’t vote for Harris, that day you wish so badly to vote for 3rd party or the next Bernie Sanders will never happen. If you don’t vote for Harris, you’re allowing Trump to take the seat because you don’t want to help Harris.
They know. They don’t believe their propaganda. It’s designed to fool others.
Please don’t speak for me. Thank you!
With how much conservatives straw man liberals, you’re in no position to ask favors.
Whew the tankies and astroturfers are out in force in these comments. I think we got the gamut going here:
- “I don’t vote for genocide”
- “A vote for 3rd party isn’t a vote for Trump”
- “If we don’t vote 3rd party nothing will change”
- “Jill Stein isn’t a Russian asset”
- “Who cares if Trump wins; they’re both bad / nothing worse will happen l both sides”
- “I literally don’t understand how Trump can win if I vote 3rd party because I don’t understand the difference between voting for and against a candidate”
- “Liberals / Democrats / Harris voters are the real fascists”
Solid work astroturfers! Glad to see you’re still trotting out these arguments despite plenty of Lemmy users discrediting each and every one. Really shows grit and dedication.
Also, calling it now that at least one of them replies with something about how they’re true / haven’t been discredited.
“Who cares if Trump wins; they’re both bad / nothing worse will happen l both sides”
Trump’s RIGHT NOW basically talking about forming up goon squads and kicking out immigrants on the basis of some law passed in the 1700s and people are still pretending like this dude isn’t basically a Hitler.
“I don’t vote for genocide”
Yeah…about that…a vote that helps Trump is one that not only exacerbates the ongoing genocide in the middle east, but starts up a new one right here. He’s talking seriously about military tribunal and gas chamber type shit in “Operation Aurora”.
I assure you that they don’t care. Single issue voters are the worst.
Even if your single issue is genocide Trump is on the worse side.
It makes it easy to tag them for future reference or block them at least.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re actually Trump supporters, just trying to get the swing voters to be all pessimistic and get them not to vote or vote 3rd party.
Trump supporters aren’t smart enough to understand how the Fediverse works.
Not all Trump supporters are American and not all Trump supporters are unable to log into a website.
What a dreadful article. If you’re not in a swing state, and you’re in the minority, and you have been for the last 70 years, why do you think anything is going to change this time? Your vote never made a difference before and it almost certainly won’t this time, either. Vote for whoever you want to vote for.
It’s just embarrassing to write an article like this and forget about the electoral college.
It’s just embarrassing to write an article like this and forget about the electoral college.
You say that as if you don’t realise that the electoral college is exactly why it can’t possibly achieve anything to vote third party other than risk your least favourite candidate winning.
You act all high and mighty and snide and then completely miss the point. I’m not impressed.
If you’re in a state that is solidly red or blue, then similar logic applies to downballot races.
If you vote for the lesser of two evils, you deserve to get the greater evil.
That’s so obviously false. Why did you think it would sound even remotely plausible?
There’s a trolly going down a track with 5 people tied to it. You can pull a lever to slow the trolly down and it will only run over 1 person, or you can do nothing and it will run over all 5.
This guy: “Anyone who would pull the lever for the lesser evil of running over 1 person deserves the greater evil of running over all of them.”
Except you could pull the 3rd party lever that kills no one, but because that lever dOeSnT hAvE a rEaLiStiC cHaNcE, you’d still pull the lever that killed a person.
One month before the election is not the time to be building a 3rd party. Why do I already know I won’t hear a damn thing from 3rd party people come December, and they’ll stay quiet until mid 2028?
More like the third lever is a lever that does absolutely nothing but comfort the person pulling with a dumb sign that says, “your moral purity is still intact”, 5 people still die. Spoiler, your moral purity is not intact, you just lie to yourself that it is.
I think you did some math wrong somewhere.
Voting for Trump or Harris is the same result. Some rich ass who doesnt give a rats ass about me or my community and just wants to funnel money to their rich friends. Its like two-faces double headed coin. Neither gives a shit. Fuck both parties and their candidates.
That’s just Trump though. And… every other republican from the last 30 years.
Notice a pattern?
I see you’re not gay or trans and don’t care about those who are.
What?
You said it’s the same result either way. But Trump wants to persecute if not outright kill gay and trans people. So clearly that doesn’t matter to you.
You made it clear you don’t care about your fellow Americans that the Republicans are actively trying to eliminate.
… And the one that’s best to vote for is Harris.
Third parties are crucial and we can’t vote for them (intelligently) until we change away from first past the post:
This article is the most logically corrupt piece of statist drivel i have read today. “No, no, don’t vote for who you feel best represent your values. Instead, pretend like everyone else who shares those values is going to team up and vote for the same one of the two people they dislike.” Because, in essence, the “logic” used in this article only works if you assume that all of the third party voters are pulling from one candidate.
Better than throwing your vote the garbage!
That vote has the power to make a difference. But not if you throw it away on someone with no chance of winning.
The electoral system in the US is broken. In this system there’s a 100% chance that Trump or Kamala will win. That’s not even a question, it’s undeniable fact. So, in this electoral system, if you actually want to have a say in which of these two wins, then vote for that one. Otherwise you’re likely to get the other one. Helping some other candidate get 10% does absolutely nothing to help your values.
As long as first past the post and electoral colleges are a thing in the US, that’s just the reality of the situation.
I disagree. Third party votes do quite a bit to move political platforms. No one wants to leave 10% of the vote on the table when that’s all it takes to seize victory. So they move their platforms to encompass what the 10% are voting for.
if you actually want to have a say in which of these two wins,
That’s just it. I, and many others do not value having a say in which of these two gets elected as highly as we value promoting 3rd parties, speaking our hearts with our votes, and edging towards a better political situation for the next generation.
But yes, the electoral system is broken. And ending first past the post will be the single biggest savior of US politics.
If Trump wins and doesn’t succeed in abolishing voting, the democratic party would be pushed further right, having fielded one of the more leftwing democrats in my lifetime and lost against one of the most clearly bad choices for president of my lifetime. Your precious theoretical better political situation isn’t going to come remotely close to reality in that scenario.
That’s just it. I, and many others do not value having a say in which of these two gets elected as highly as we value promoting 3rd parties, speaking our hearts with our votes, and edging towards a better political situation for the next generation.
And if one of these 2 hasn’t made it clear that they want to erode the integrity (if not right eliminate) all future elections that would be a valid argument. If the Republicans actually had a reasonable law abiding candidate then there would be no problem with people voting 3rd party.
I mean, i’d like to believe that you make that case in good faith. But you have to realize that third party voters are admonished by the status quo voters every single presidential election. Every one. So, while this may be the first time you personally have argued that a third partier should vote for your candidate, third partiers have heard it over and over again. You know all those other elections that didn’t have a Trump in them? Yeah, we heard it then too. So, i’m sorry but the whole “this is the most important election in history” schtick just doesn’t warrant any consideration when you’re hearing it for the umpteenth time.
When was the last time there was a presidential candidate who literally said they’d be a dictator, who says there won’t be any elections in the future, who fails to recognise the previous time he lost, who incited a civil uprising, who says he might murder his political opponents?
“this is the most important election in history” schtick just doesn’t warrant any consideration
Holy fuck. When I was younger I used to wonder how the Nazis ever managed to gain power. I don’t anymore.
Trump has repeatedly stated he would be a dictator on day 1 and refuses to walk it back when asked about it. He encouraged and supported what happened on January 6th.
There has never been a candidate that was openly and fundamentally against democracy like this.
Trump should be caught up in too many legal battles from all the crimes he’s committed to have any time to campaign or be relevant in the election. The fact that he’s not is already a massive failure of our political system.
It doesn’t matter how many candidates third parties pull from.
If no candidate gets 270 votes, the election is decided by the House. That’s at the electoral college level, but see jordan lund’s breakdown above and how a majority “not Trump” votes will be split among candidates but Trump still wins the state because the “not Trump” voters couldn’t get their shit together and coalesce around a single candidate.
And if the election goes to the House, Assuming Republicans maintain control, take one guess who they’re going to elect?
And why is everyone assuming that all of the third party voters would be Harris voters if they were forced to choose between the two main candidates? This is where the logic goes south. It assumes that the third party voters are some homogenous bloc of disenfranchised “not Trump” voters.
Aren’t they though?
No.
Got any evidence of all these right-leaning 3rd party supporters?
Thats not how this works. The one making the claim provides some evidence. The article makes an unsubstantianted claim that the 3rd party voters are all Harris > Trump. I asked for some sort of proof of this. And you have responded by asking me for proof refuting their claim. Burden of proof is not on me. I am just asking you, or anyone else to back up these claims, because the authors did not
Lol okay then I’ll assume you’re pulling this whole argument from your ass. Rofl. “Burden of proof” lol what a copout.
Vote for whoever you want. Don’t let anyone guilt trip you because youre not going to vote for their candidate. Everyone wants to cry about a 2 party system but then says a vote for a 3rd party is a vote for trump. You guys are the problem.
In a world without the electoral college (or in one with a House that actually represents the majority of the country), sure. Vote your conscience. In reality, we live in a two party system where the third will always be a spoiler.
And a generation from now we will still be in a shitty two party system if everyone keeps voting for “the lesser of two eveils.”
Throwing a vote away on someone with 0% chance is distinctly less impactful than voting for someone with 50% chance.
That depends entirely on the impact you hope to achieve. I am under no dilusion that my choice will win in 2024. That is not the purpose of my third party vote.
So if a 3rd party candidate was somehow elected then we would be forever freed from the two party system? I doubt it.
I think if a 3rd party is ever going to become something viable in a national election then it will have to start small at the state level and work its way up from there. And it’ll take a bunch of states doing that to create any kind of momentum needed to create anything viable at the national level.
I still think voting 3rd party in the presidential election is a monumentally poor choice. It’s a worthless protest vote at this point.
Who said that a single win for a third party candidate would be the death knell of the two party system?
My personal goal is to vote for the candidate who vest teflects my values. Always. In every election. At every level. If everyone did this tomorrow we’d be in a much better situation. Obviously that is unrealistic. But so is asking those who vote their heart to compromise their values by voting for a different candidate just because they have a chance of winning. The goal here IS slow generation change. By all means given to us.
If everyone did this tomorrow we would have project 2025 and get a fascist dystopia, dumbass. The left would splinter and Trump would easily win.
Dumbass, huh? I’ll just leave you alone, then.
Just calling it like it is. You said a dumb thing.
Maybe I misunderstood your comment, and I apologize if so. You said we would be voting in a two party system for another generation if we didn’t vote third party. I assumed that meant a 3rd party would have to win to break out of what we have today.
Well, don’t get me wrong, a WIN for a 3rd party IS the ultimate goal. But change happens slowly in politics and in life. Slow and steady support for a three party system will eventually result in that end. Continued support for a two party system, by contrast, never will. I, myself, will continue to place votes for the better of those two eventualities.
I think we agree. I’m supportive of a viable third party if it creates more choice, but it’s not going to start with a presidential election. There are billions being spent keeping it the way it is. I’m sorry about it, but it’s the truth. I would encourage you to push for a 3rd party at the local level rather than to simply put up a protest vote at the national level. An example would be what’s happening in Nebraska where a 2 term Republican incumbent is at risk of losing to an Independent who successfully negotiated for striking cereal workers.
That will be the least of our problems if you let trump win for the sake of protest votes. A generation from now we will be completely fucked with even more stacked federal courts, even worse climate change, continued dismantling of healthcare, a decimated government from project 2025, etc, etc.
“for the sake of protest votes” Not everyone sees a vote for a third party as a “protest vote”. Some see it as a real investment now for a better future for the country.
The points you raise do sound troubling, don’t they? But can you remeber an election in the last 25 years where letting the “wrong guy” win wasn’t posed as the single worst thing possible. The things you mention are bad, yes, but they are also no different than the alarmist rallying cries that have been used every 4 years for the last… forever.
But can you remeber an election in the last 25 years where letting the “wrong guy” win wasn’t posed as the single worst thing possible.
McCain and Romney I fundamentally disagreed with but no one ever claimed they’d be the death of democracy. This is a claim that is very specific to Donald Trump. We don’t just pull it up every single election.
The things you mention are bad, yes, but they are also no different than the alarmist rallying cries that have been used every 4 years for the last… forever.
alarmist? Look at the state of the Supreme Court that overturned Roe v Wade. Look at the state of the climate that’s wrecking us with heat, massive fires, and hurricanes every single year now. These are real, material issues that we’ve been needing to address for decades, and we’re paying the price for failing to do so.
All of this vastly outweighs any nebulous benefit you think will come of voting for a 3rd party, whatever you want to call it.
So this election cycle it’s climate and the Supreme Court for you. That’s great. If you feel Harris will help fix those things then have it. The policies I’m voting for will absolutely help with those issues. Every 4 years there are going to be major major things that folks think their particular guy or gal is going to fix. And then they won’t. And then there’ll be another (or the same) set of things in another four years. I’m gonna go ahead and vote for some real change instead.
you’re voting for nothing friend.
Exactly. Democrats have shown if they aren’t held accountable that they will do terrible things. A vote of someone against genocide is statement. If Democrats don’t like that anti genocide candidates can run and participate then they are the fascist.
genocide
It’s like #onejoke but for Russian shills
It’s so predictable to be called a Russian shill when you say an inconvenient truth about the Democrats supreme leader.
