Please note the momentum shift that started just around the DNC convention. Ask yourself what changed in the Harris campaign at that time.
No, it started after the debate. The DNC told her to abandon her working rhetoric of “not going back.” And they told Walz to stop using the weird moniker, which was the first negative connotation that ever really stuck to Trump. It’s like they not only don’t want to support actual progressive ideas that people actually want, but they also don’t want to win.
Why is the generation born because we fought the Nazis so into this shit?
They are the weak men created by good times. We are living through the hard times they created.
Just vibes will win the presidency…
Just like always.
It boggles the mind that this sack of shit is even in the running.
He has the charisma of a wet sponge (and the appearance of someone you’d think twice before buying a used car from), he can hardly string together a sentence (let alone hold a speech), hi lies, he commits fraud, he’s a convicted felon…
That’s hardly brushing the surface, yet people go “fuck yeah, this guy should run the country”.
Jeebuz fuckin christ… what’s happening?
Unless you got home schooled by Heinrich Himmler, there’s no excuse. You can’t possibly offer your political support to such a scumbag.
30 or 40 years ago he would’ve been laughed out of politics the moment he came down his gold escalator.
Guess there was not enough money in the public school system after all.
When a society puts money above all else Donald Trump is what happens. He was a celebrity failed businessman long before he became president, he knows what gets Americans excited.
Idiocracy. We live in Idiocracy… 500 years before expected.
President Camacho legitimately wanted to find solutions to the problems his constituents faced, AND he had the wisdom and self-awareness to know he needed someone smarter than himself in order to achieve that. He’s willing to try things and change his mind when he is presented with new information. Furthermore, when he is successful, he shares the credit equitably with the other people involved.
We’re doing much worse than Idiocracy.
Idiocracy was a movie working from the naive assumption that people are greedy and shortsighted, and that these attributes lead to social (and eventually genetic) decay.
Americans have to deal with a much harder truth. That being smart doesn’t make you virtuous and lust for power more than simple hedonistic greed is what cultivates the worst social policies. Our story is a story of pure hubris. Its a story of reasonably intelligent and educated people gaming a system that causes pain in order to pay them a profit.
We’re doing much worse than Idiocracy.
America’s sins aren’t sloth or lust or gluttony nearly so much as they are wrath and pride.
I dont remember much about genetic decay.
There was definitely educational decay.
I dont remember much about genetic decay.
Its the opening scene.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP2tUW0HDHA
Evolution does not necessarily reward intelligence. With no natural predators to thin the herd, it began to simply reward those who reproduced the most, and left the intelligent to become an endangered species.
He may have been a tad impatient, but he eventually saw the green
It’s not fair. I at least wanna go get a burger at Buttfuckers.
I was talking with my mom the other day and apparently their neighbors, who up until now had never shown any political affiliation at all, put up a Trump flag. They’ve been neighbors for like 20 years haha, my mom was shocked.
I don’t watch a lot of TV, so I don’t see ads much, but just saw an ad from the turnip who was railing against they/them pronouns…the level of hate from the turnips is insane. It’s like if Hitler was running and railing against jews. How is this shit allowed on tv…next he’s gonna be saying minorities should be hung.
Hanged. Execution by hanging is hanged not hung.
Maybe he thinks Trump wants immigrants to be hung as in have huge dicks to be eligible for an entry visa?
They can be hung by their own huge dicks as long as it’s not to death.
Running the country again…
I’m willing to believe someone could have voted for Trump the first time in good faith. Voting for him again after seeing the shitshow of his first term, however…
I was at a pumpkin patch 25 minutes out of Chicago on Saturday and there was a man proudly wearing a shirt with Trump on it and the shirt said, “I’m voting for the convicted felon”. His voter base does not fucking care, at all.
They are under the assumption that both sides are equally bad and want to see it all burn down I think. They don’t think much further however.
I know a lot of Trump supporters. Without fail their support is based on hate. LGBTQ, immigrants, the belief that Democrats are child molesters, etc. I’ve heard it all. They don’t know what his policies are, nor do they care.
That’s hardly brushing the surface, yet people go “fuck yeah, this guy should run the country”.
Only the stupid people say that. The smart people say that the woman running against him is just as bad as him despite being measurably better in literally every conceivable metric.
He tells people it’s ok to be angry. That’s all they want to hear.
Who answers polls?
I did, a few weeks ago.
I’m part of that 5% thay says she aint left enough.
“If I can’t get universal healthcare, I’ll vote for the end of all social services and democracy as we know it. That’ll show em!”
Did I fucking say that?
Old people, mostly.
Blame the polls if you want. The race is a coin flip. I find it hard to stomach too, but I’m not in denial about it.
Not even giving them the click. I know who I’m voting for.
538 has Trump’s support at his 2016 final levels. This is relevant to note because, in both prior elections, the polls were extremely good at predicting the baseline margins from diehards and registered, and the error came from badly guessing the undecideds wrong.
Unless this is the first election in a long long time to actually get the baseline wrong or literally 100% of the undecideds go to Harris, Trump’s got above 2016 in raw percentage totals basically locked in(in 2016 a ton of people went third party so neither he or Hillary actually crossed 50 percent, Hillary was 48.2 and Trump 46.1). In 2020 it was 46.8 for Trump and 51.3% for Biden. If things continue to trend that way Trump will be close to his 2020 total percentage locked in and thus will almost certainly be higher in the final count. The people genuinely leaving Trump will mostly be former undecideds, not the people locked in, so this number isn’t being shifted as much. That does suggest that, even with his general ceiling region not shifting a ton, he’s probably set to break 47% in the final number if not more (Trump was polling sub-45 in both 2016 and 2020 so 48 is also plausible).
This matters mostly because not every undecided is going to break for Harris or Trump, there will be people sticking third party who most polls lump in with them or at least contribute to the ‘Not Harris or Trump’ number, and this is one of the few areas where the general trend is not in Harris’s favor. Just broadly speaking this is the most left-wing Third Party batch we’ve had since 2000.
As much as people love to say voting third party helps Republicans, that hasn’t been the case in a while, the Libertarians have been the strongest for a long while and they usually siphon off more Republicans, especially Anti-Trump Ron Paul types. They probably cost Trump Georgia in 2020. But the Libertarian party has been in a state of collapse since 2022, there was an attempted takeover by a hard right clique, which lead to a nasty party schism that left the party not cooperating, then a ton of Hardliners defected to Trump when the Moderates got control of the primaries, and then to make matters worse RFK joined in around that time taking most of the right wing moderates and leaving the Left Libertarians to put Chase Oliver on the ticket. So a ton of Libertarian voters either left with the hardliners for Trump a year ago or left for RFK who in turn endorsed Trump likely redirecting some more of them to him, and what’s left is the most Left-Wing Libertarian the party has run since the 1970s.
Then there’s the fact the Constitution Party has been steadily weakening for years, they lost their status as the Number 3 Third Party in 2020 to the PSL, and this year they had a schism between the Mormon and Protestant factions. They also mostly take Republican Votes. Or the fact the usual coalition of small right wing parties all working together to back one candidate(Rocky De Le Fuente last time) are all gone. Why? They all hitched to RFK Jr, and he dropped out too late for any of them to pick new guys. (That I honestly suspect was the real goal of his candiacy. Wipe out the small right wing third parties and weaken the Libertarians).
On the other foot, the Greens are proportionally stronger as Jill Stein has better name recognition than Howie, the Party for Socialism and Liberation is surging with youth support and is set to break their all time record again, and Cornel West…exists.
It could be far worse, lawsuits kept most of them off of most Swing States, Nevada kept the Green Party off and has the Constitution Party, and Pennsylvania and Arizona only have the Greens and Libertarians. Wisconsin and Michigan also still have RFK Jr on them despite Cornel West and Claudia being there. But it’s still way more left leaning than normal just from the Libertarian crisis and lack of small right parties even without those new guys.
Let’s say around 1.5% of the undecideds go Third Party. Lower than 2020, way way lower than 2016, about on parr with previous years. It’s going to be mostly people who would otherwise vote democrat. The Popular Vote to Electoral College margin is supposed to be quite a bit less this year, but sub-Hillary margins nationally are probably a loss. So Harris wants a 2 point lead and there’s around 98.5% available. It’s gonna be tight.
Great analysis, thank you
So yeah, when people ask how Trump could be doing this well despite stuff like COVID deaths or Harris’s gains, that’s my reasoning.
- Significant gains in Libertarians who usually vote for the Libertarian Party
- Notable gains with young men.
- Marginal gains with Hispanic men
- Democrat losses among older white men attached to Biden.
TL:DR The lower number of undecideds also means that less of them need to break for Trump to give a win, even with the gap between Popular Vote and Electoral College predicted to shrink significantly. Polls have been very accurate at predicting the baseline support, it’s the undecideds they suck at guessing.
Trump’s baseline just hit 46.1%, 2016 final levels(not 2016 baseline that was barely 40%, big difference) and at the rate it’s slowly creeping up could be at or close to 2020 final levels, 46.8%. Harris has been stuck at 48 and a half points for a bit. Assuming this trend holds another 4 weeks we’re looking at something like 48.8 to 46.8 baseline nationally or in that general area. Some of those undecideds are going for third parties, likely more left leaning ones.
All that accounting for if Trump wins just half the undecideds the final result gap would be around 2 points, similar to 2016 if not slightly smaller, which is probably a Trump win. He’s converted enough to diehards he’s gone from needing 2/3+ to just half. And Trump won with the undecideds both prior elections. Harris is improving, absolutely, but the changing third party situation is a braking factor absorbing and neutralizing it to a degree(in 2020 and especially 2016 Trump was bleeding more votes to guys like Gary Johnson, Jo Jorgenson, Rocky De Le Fuente, and Evan McMullin. This year the third party composition has shifted left thanks to the rise of the PSL, strengthing of the Greens, RFK Jr killing the small right wing bloc, and Libertarian infighting.). So this change was a net negative and Harris’s growth has been somewhat absorbed in neutralizing this. That’s also probably why Trump’s raw base total is up, among other things a lot of hardliner Hoppean or Rothbardian LIbertarians jumped ship to him when Chase Oliver and the moderates won the party.
Take a swing state for example. Less accurate overall, but just a hypothetical, and it’s a clean “get the most votes and it’s yours” so no need to guess ratios. According to 538, There’s 4 and a half points not locked in, Harris is leading by 0.4-0.7 and it’s fluctuating day to day. Pennsylvania isn’t a super 3rd party happy state compared to some of the sunbelt, and PSL and Cornel didn’t get on, so that’s a bit more favorable. Let’s say 1 point goes to third party, a bit more Harris thanks to the internal shifts, but not by much. Of of the remaining 3.5, if 63% were to go to Trump, that’s it, even with the best case 0.8 point base lead Harris loses. If it’s more like 0.4 Trump just needs around 55% of the undecideds. That’s it. And this state is better in the third party spread than some others. Trump won more than those numbers from them the last two elections.
The only thing I can see really shifting it, is people saying they’ll support trump to stay in with their communities, then making excuses why they stayed home on election day.
And if I’m honest, that’s a hell of a hail mary pass.
I don’t like Harris very much. But the fact that half the country is willing to choose a deranged con artist over her is just beyond any rational thought.
Everything is fear based and not rationale.
Trump voters fear immigrants; Fear their guns, religion and identity are somehow being taken away. They fear and refuse to understand the world is constantly changing and that we need to adapt along with it.
Harris voters (rightly) fear trump and all the bigotry, racism, and misogyny he has enabled and emboldened.
Most of the American people don’t have something to vote for, only something to vote against. The ruling class is further detached for the working class by stoking culture wars gaslighting on the socioeconomic disparage
Rationality has nothing to do with it.
It’s all fear based. They think the migrants coming across the border are coming to take their job, rape them, break into their home, shop at the same Walmart as them, etc.
I’ve lately been watching some radio shows on the BBC, and it’s wild to see the same things happening over there. I don’t know if it’s just how modern society has become or if it spread from us or them, but take away the British accents and the names and policies, and it’s the same insanity. What the hell is wrong with people?
Russia created a network of wannabe autocrats, and they are pushing each other all across the globe.
That’s it, that’s most of all of it.
No it isn’t. It’s hardly any of it. We exist in the same places they are targeting and it didn’t turn us into complete goddamn idiots, so what’s their excuse?
They have always been racist, but the populists taking advantage of them use Russian tactics and are backed by Russia.
Stuff like Trump and Brexit is not normal, and it’s not just happening spontaneously because all the racists decided to be more overt at the same time around the world.
I’m for all of that happening… to Republicans. ;)
I want to commend you for how well you did that. Absolutely beautiful ending with “shop at the same Walmart as them”
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Yeah. Well played there. 👍
Half the voting population, more specifically
Or I guess in this case, half of those polled
To be fair, it’s not like everyone that doesn’t vote hates him. Some do I’m sure, but there’s also going to be people that think favorably of him but don’t bother voting, just as there are and have been for his opponents
They want Trump in because he represents an amoral outsider. Someone who is disenfranchised by the moralisms of the establishment left.
This is how they see themselves.
They like him because he’s a shithead who doesn’t care to preserve this system. They want change even if it’s bad.
In this way pointing out that he’s a shithead and a risk to democracy - helps him.
Unfortunately it’s the Harris campaign’s only option, as the alternative is to say: He’s actually a highly connected establishment figure who will pull the same establishment shit we do. This would have obviously blow back for an establishment figure.
They want Trump BECAUSE he’s a train wreck.
That’s what happen when you fuck your education system for money
Either way we get Reagan’s 12th term
You got downvotes, but I get your point. We still have scars from Reaganomics and other crimes.
13th
Polling is broken.
Another 4 years of liberals crying about trump…
Kill yourself.
With what?
Maybe the neoliberals should stop trying to throw the race to suck up to corporate donors.
Again.
And you fuckers called me crazy for saying there was a concerted propaganda effort to conflate “neoliberal” with “liberal”
Neoliberals are Republicans.
Liberals are Democrats.
Reagan was arguably a neoliberal and Bush a neocon, but current Republicans have moved even further right straight to neofascism. The way that liberal democrats serve corporations over people proves to me that there is no longer a meaningful distinction between liberalism and neoliberalism.
“Kamala Harris is as far right as Ronald Reagan” was not a take I was expecting to see today.
Although given that this is Lemmy I wish I could say I was surprised.
It’s hilarious that you think it isn’t true. Other than hating gay and black people which isn’t actually on an economic axis (necessarily…)
Reagan wasn’t arguably a neoliberal. He was neoliberalism. The governmental policies of that era define the modern Democratic and what was the Republican Party.
It’s not even entirely negative, deinstitutionalization wasn’t done intelligently but there was rampant abuse in the system, for example.
Fuckin told ya! It’s just another elaborate goddamn “bothsides”
Money from donors/SuperPACs > winning against Neo-Mussolini
We’ll see if they still feel that way when Mango Mussolini throws them in a camp.
Obama will spend his final days on Martha’s Vineyard, surrounded by loving grandchildren and giant piles of money.
Meanwhile, its going to be the 1.1M people barred from voting in Florida on Felony Disenfranchisement rules that end up in the camps.
A liberals last thought would be “I wish this labor camp had more female prison guards, that would have made me feel better about executed.”
Hey, say what you will about 2024 Nazis, they’re proud to let white women shoot people in the back of the head.
Very true. Sorry you got downvoted for that.
The media wants a race. That’s the only way they get viewers.
Or… it really is THAT close of a race. When we shrug it off as “the media just wants a race” we get complacent.
www.vote.gov make sure you’re registered and double check even if you think you already are. Early voting is happening in some states. Get active
Who’s shrugging off anything? Did I say that? Nope. I’m just saying that we can have a close race and it still be true that Harris holds a 3-point lead nationally and small leads in the swing states. My point is that the media ALWAYS try making it even closer than what it is. Do you disagree with that?
It could also be true that Trump holds a 3 point lead. It could go both ways.
Always vote like your vote will make a difference. It might, especially local races. If we accidentally turn the election into a sweep by everyone voting, oh well.
It can be both things.
There are no definitive data points that should lead anyone to believe that either candidate has a significant advantage.
I’m not sure anyone who is well versed in election projections or polling would say anything other than it’s a toss up. As a heavy consumer of said data and reporting, I haven’t seen anything to the contrary.
You’re not wrong about media incentives, but they’re also not wrong that this is a very close race.
Thank you! That was point. It’s close. Harris holds a steady, yet small lead. The media will always make it seem closer than what it is though for ratings.
Landslide stomps get views too. They made a game of Reagan’s run in literally 1984 trying to predict if he could win all 50 states or not. (He fell one short).
Margin of error above 3%. Non-story.
Not to mention, NBC ran the numbers with different turnout cases. In one of those cases, a very realistic but small few percentage point changes in turnout assumptions of different demographics could make the poll swing to 49% Harris to 46% Trump
How different turnout models change the NBC News poll results
Further, two other national polls released today showed the race as Harris+3. A lot of the dooming tends to be based on single polls. Yes the polls suggest race is close, but only paying attention to anything bad/mediocre isn’t helpful either
Don’t doom, take action instead
Make sure to register to vote. Deadlines are fast approaching in many states
Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online
Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races
People who downvote are encouraged to take Statistics 101.
<3
Dementia donnie is trying to thwart efforts to help Americans in the wake of two hurricanes. He wants to end democracy as we know it, and there are still people stupid enough to think he should run the place.
SMH.
